Post#2 Working Through Basics

And I thought that I could just walk over to business use case and crack it. Typical developer mindset. Every developer novice or retired thinks that he can develop the functionality in super fast time. Some really great developers do deliver faster than eye can blink, but a vase majority of them just set themselves up for failure. 


I know this lesson as a manager. I learnt it several years ago. Well its time to revisit that. The developer in me stands chastened by the manager in me. Developer me Hates the Manager and the Manager feels exasperated by simplistic life view of the developer.


Step 1 of getting to Accounts Set Up is to fetch the Master Data. That's about 2% of the use case. Of that getting bank data is 20%. Ha! But just implementing that 20% of 2% is such an education. 


Traversing that path took me through so much learning. I learned about getting multiple rows through Spring NamedParameterJdbcTemplate and RowMapper. The RowMapper gets just 1 row. But used in conjunction with List NamedParameterJdbcTemplate.query(dbCon,Map,RowMapper) it can fetch multiple rows.


While developing the code I researched the net several times. The top 3 sites I've constantly found useful are
StackOverFlow.com trouble shooting and quick ref
CodeRanch.com for trouble shooting and quick ref
mkyong.com For good hands on learning
viralpatel.net Spring MVC concepts  Desis contribute to the world too :)
krams915.blogspot.com Great Learning Experience on spring MVC security
roseindia.net 101 for beginners

In the ancient web development world of servlet and jsps (back when I last coded). This would be a 2 step process. 

Step 1 - You have a controller servlet which works as the traffic cop (authentication and authorization) and then sends it over to the jsp.

Step -2 The jsp would invoke all the pojo's needed and you'd use jsp tags to render the page. All reusable jsp was stitched together using jsp:include. You had to take care of closing the db connections (you could write util classes that addressed the connection leakage issues). And you'd be done.

In this new world everything is encapsulated. The frameworks are Robust but the learning curve is steep.

So 

- I created a controller using @Controller. Added @RequestMapping

- I set up Spring MVC Security and created authorization levels (Took a lot of time)

- I configured the web.xml and server.xml for db connection.

- Updated  dispatcher-servlet with pojo wirings

- Wrote the jsp

Midway I changed some packages and used application refactoring to update references. Well its not foolproof because somehow it forgot to update spring-security.xml and the server refused to start up. Some head banging got it resolved.

So now finally I can see the masterlist of banks! Hurrah! 

Post#1 Sunday Blues

I have been working on Spring and learning Spring MVC to build the site on. I've created the Master Page Template. Choosing the colors is fun and also time consuming. Its like my daughter choosing colors for her coloring app on her ipod Touch. Anything goes. You keep choosing colors and changing them trying to make things better.

I finally settled on Green. Chatak Green :) Ha Ha! White, Green and Gray. With a little sprinkling of Yellow, Red and Orange. No Blue! eh!

The next challenge was to reuse the template across pages. Only the central content will change. How do you achieve this? I wondered off on the web. The age old technique is to use jsp: include. It works. I used it a lot about 10 years ago. But its outdated now. One of the programs I run in office uses Wicket(I just sign team leaves and look at weekly reports) and so I tried reading up a bit. I then meandered to Velocity, Tapestry and finally settled on Apache Tiles. For the simple work I'm doing Tiles is just fine. Its a little old. Wicket is popular and good but then I want to use Spring MVC. So Tiles it is. 

Started on Tiles and set it up on Friday. Worked on it yesterday. Finally I'm done. Its working to my satisfaction. Hurrah! Learnt a new thing and used it.

Then came the crash. Today morning when I left for the gym, I had left the laptop on. The cleaning lady came and switched off the power. After I returned from gym, I had my bath and then breakfast. It was time now to get cracking on Login Use Case. I settled down at my desk only to find out the battery had drained and the Laptop had switched off. I cursed the maid silently and fired up the laptop only to find an error. Spring was unable to load from the application. Aaagh! I tried refreshing the project, copied spring-mvc in the lib again but nothing. Out of frustration, I uninstalled Tomcat and reinstalled it. That worked. My app came back up.

I worked a bit on the login page and when I tried testing it, the datasource will not be found. When uninstalling Tomcat, the server config files were deleted. Of course I had no backup. Aaagh Again!

I had forgotten how to set up datasource, as I did it way back in december. Anyhow, I spent a good 3 excruciating hours setting up the datasource. Whatever  I did the error won't go. After tearing out a few hair, I finally figured out the in the new datasource name I had one alphabet in Caps while JNDI name I was using in my util class it was not!

A throwback to my developer days. Anyhow its solved now. The login usecase main flow is half done. I'll close it before I move on to business use case Accounts Set up.

Daily Diary

I've been struggling to put together my site for some time now. I made great progress last year in December. I got the conceptual part done. But for the last 6 months, I've struggled and my efforts have sputtered poorly.

The challenge for me is that I'm outdated. I even admit it in my profile :). I've been out of touch with technology for a very long time. The last I worked hands on on Web Technologies for about 6 years ago, that too was a brief stint of about 2 months. It was perhaps 10 years ago I last did anything substantial. And you know what, the world has changed a lot since then.

The last 6 months have been a challenge. I did put together something using, basic jsp just so that I could get the concept tested but that was that. I could cover a lot of business use cases in just 10 days (Xmas Holidays). But since then its been an uphill task. But then its been a great learning journey.

Lets look at the stuff  I'll have to learn to deliver my dream.
- IDE Eclipse.
- css 3
- jQuery
- Ajax
- Spring
- Annotations
- Spring MVC
- My SQL Database
- Apache Tiles (I thought of using Wicket but Tiles is enough for my app)
- json

This weekend I again got some traction. But I'm afraid I'll lose the momentum soon. How do I keep myself motivated? Its easy to lose the way in the daily humdrum. The work sucks! It also sucks life out of me. Long hours and constant pressure leave little time to spare. And yet I've been able to keep up with the gym schedule for 2.5 years now.

It became possible because I refused to take calls in the morning hours. I refused to take my phone to the gym. While one hour of gym is just dandy, working on a project of this scale is different.

Its not like anyone is helping me with either learning or development. I've got to learn and build everything on my own. Ah! Its a pipe dream. But I'll get a working model out by the end of the year. At least thats the plan.


So back to the question, how do I keep myself going? By keeping a daily diary to keep track of this voyage.
I'll write as often as I work on the project. I'll rant about by frustrations, learning, disasters and recoveries progress or the lack of it.

Lets see how it goes... It all begins today 1-July-2012...

An Idea Whose Time Has Come

Google just launched its own Tablet. Microsoft did the same couple of weeks ago. That triggered a thought on how things have changed over the last 3 decades.

In the Seventies and Eighties, Apple had a closed ecosystem and Microsoft had an Open System. Look at these as battle of Ideologies. And we know who won the first round. Microsoft made money selling OS and allowing developers to write and sell applications for the OS. Those were the PC days.

Fast forward to 2008. Apple launched iPhone. Google launched Android. MSFT was a late starter and I think they really kicked it off with Mango.

Apple continued with its philosophy of a closed ecosystem. Just that it made its ecosystem self sustaining. With iTunes, AppStore and its array of products, iPhone, MacBook, iPods, iPad and other products it seamlessly integrated the ecosystem.

Google gave away its OS for free. That led to rapid absorption of the OS but very little revenue for google and fragmentation of the OS and offerings. The OS on the phones can't be upgraded like iPhone. There is no unified / well managed market place which validates the application up for sale. In a nutshell Android ecosystem is a mess and Google is not making any money or atleast not as much as it could.

MSFT, the less said the better. No takers, No Revenue, little prospect.

Form 1980s to date Apple has stuck to its ideology. It didn't click then, but today its made Apple the most valued company in the world, a title MSFT held in the 90s.

No one can stop an idea whose time has come. Thank You Steve Jobs for sticking with what you believed in. This world is a better place because of you.

IRCTC Then and Now

I read an article on the bottlenecks IRCTC faces during peak time, 8:00 am everyday, on ET. They have always struggled to keep up with the demand. They have always played catch up. Today they are struggling to meet 13,000 requests per minute. But if you look back, they have come a really long way.

I was hooked on to IRCTC early. I became a member in 2002. During the lat 10 years I have struggled with reservations countless times and have cursed them over and over. I believe when you are constantly playing catch-up you never get any recognition. That's the curse you must live with till you break free and get ahead. Only someone who has an old reference point and is tracking the trajectory can appreciate the challenges.

Here is a mail I got from irctc way back in 2004.

So from 100,000 bookings a month to 350,000 a day. Its almost a 100 times gain over 7.5 years.  Not that bad Hmm!

Print - Close Window

Subject:	Update for IRCTC Customers
From:	irctcpromotions@irctc.co.in (irctcpromotions@irctc.co.in)
To:
Date:	Friday, December 17, 2004 5:33 PM

Dear Registered User,  I bring you warm greetings and best wishes for the New Year 2005 fromwww.irctc.co.in During the past year your website www.irctc.co.in has crossed many exciting milestones like the One Million Registered Users mark, one lakh tickets per month (several times), and recorded some of the biggest ever turnovers in the history of e-commerce in India. We also received recognitions for our efforts from a number of organisactions including the PC Quest user's Choice Award for IT Application with Maxium social impact and Dataquest Award for the Pathbreaking IT Application of 2003-2004. Also during the year we have launched Mobile Reservation Services and Mobile PNR alert services with major cellular operators. These include M/s Airtel , Hutch and Reliance while others like MTNL, IDEA, Tata Indicom and BSNL are in the process of making applications for these services including Speech recognition (Voice), GPRS & CDMA. We are shortly launching an SMS based booking application on our very own short code 7245. We have integrated with American Express Credit Card payment gateway and Syndicate Bank, Union Bank of India, ABN Amro, Federal Bank etc. for payment options, so that now you have all the 3 credit card payment gateways and 14 banks for Internet Banking direct debit option. We have also integrated with ITZ Cash for a cash card option for those Customers who prefer cash cards. We have been continuously trying to improve the user experience on our site. Over the year we have more than doubled our Internet bandwidth, streamlined and uncluttered the "Plan my travel", process, added useful options like 100 most popular stations, 100 most popular trains, preferred passenger lists etc. We have enhanced Customer support staff strength and telephone / e-mail handling processes to stick to our basic moto of answering every mail within 6 hours and every phone call query to the complete satisfaction of the Customer. And now to take your convenience of booking to a new unprecedented level, from Jan 1st 2005, bookings will be available on the Internet from 4 AM to 11:30 PM on all days including Sundays. As usual we have been continuously running a number of special promotions - our own, as well as with other major corporates. Currently these include : 1. IRCTC's weekly 'fare back' scheme 2. Special gifts / lucky draws from Baazee.com, SBI Internet Banking 3. Discounted hotel rooms all over the country from Budgethotels.com and Kuoni group's Resnet 4. Special promos from ICICI Prudential, ICICI Cards , Citibank Cards, SBI Cardsand 5. Easy monthly installments option from Citibank Payment Gateway. As you know www.irctc.co.in offers unmatched opportunities for promotions / advertising which are currently extremely popular with several categories of products and services. IRCTC is also lining up a number of new products and services for you in the new Year. As we go into Jan 2005 which promises to be even more exciting and fulfilling for you and therefore for us, we wish to reaffirm our total commitment to you and your satisfaction in the days to come. With warm regards J.Vinayan, Jt.GM(Opns) www.irctc.co.in PS : Please note that www.irctc.co.in has no agents, franchises or distributors anywhere. Our services are solely meant for personal use of individual customers and not for resale/agency work or commercial exploitiation in any manner.

Note from the past

About 4 years ago, as I was wondering over the recovery, I had concluded that the world will be a poorer place. Today I read an article in Economictimes that brought back the memories....

Growing Indian Economy... or Shrinking??

Its a paradox. I was on Cnn Money website, looking at the world's largest economies and India did not figure in the top 10. I was wondering how is that possible where most of the top countries are going through a sluggish growth or recession (England, Spain).
Upon checking their timeline, I figured that India was 9th in the pecking order in 2010. I was thinking of a plausible reason for this when it struck me. Its due to Rupee Depreciation.
It may sound strange. We had around 10% inflation and 7%+ growth on top of that makes nominal growth add upto 17%+, and yet... Hmm. I checked out Wiki . Per IMF we shrunk by 6% between 2010 and 2011. The  Rupee depreciated around 17-18% between 2010 and 2011(against dollar). But if I go by above maths, it should have depreciated around 23% for the GDP to fall by 6% in dollar terms.
So these numbers are a bit misleading. However in the CIA world fact book India seems to be $1.8. Can 2 authentic data sources be 10-12% apart? Possible.

Recovering from Flu

I get cough and cold every 3 months but it seldom gets in the way of my daily life. Ever since I've started green tea the frequency and severity of these bouts has reduced significantly. This time however it's hit me hard. It's the 4th day and fever has relentlessly beaten me down. I've finally decided to visit a local practitioner. Dr. Allan Costillo, a true gentleman and an effective doc. I'm sitting at his clinic with about a dozen other patients from all walks of life. Essentially he is a poor man's doctor. He has been around it seems for centuries. He has seen generations grow up in front of him. 6 years ago when I first visited him he used to charge Rs. 40 per visit. It's gone upto 60 now. He always embellishes his proscriptions with multi colored supplements. No one really knows what they really are. They go by their color. Blue one twice a day, orange one once at night and so on. He drives a canary yellow zen since I first visited him and still does. That's how you know that the doc is in. He has renovated his clinic and it looks quite nice. The old world charm has given way to modernity. God Bless him and his patients! Amin!

China Home Market

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/07/why-chinas-housing-market-will-slow-not-collapse/?iid=EL
CNN Money article. The same logic applies to India and thats why we may not have a hard landing in the home market.

Almost Forgot

I did achieve the milestone I was hoping for. Way back in 2009 when I stared the weight loss exercises that then became a penchant for running I had hoped some day, I'd cover 21 kms(Half Marathon) in less than 2 hours. After 2 years of setting that aim(almost a wishful thinking), I finally did  it last Sunday. 01:58:30. It was on the treadmill. I have given up running on roads. as my knees hurt. But what the heck. I did finish it with more than a minute to spare.Now will I be able to repeat it in Mumbai Marathon????

2012 as I see it

Here are a few predictions for 2012. Its good to have it this way. I can check in a year to see how it went.

I feel 

- By end of Dec 2012 inflation will be less than 3%. 

- The RBI would cut the rate ferociously to stimulate dismal, dismal growth.

- Rupee will remain weak. This could have stoked inflation but its already so low its unlikely to impact inflation much. It could touch 58-60.

- Our BOP situation would remain scary

- Stock market will remain weak. It might crash to 12000 or less as Euro will collapse.

- Euro will fail. Whatever the politicians do, they can't resolve Euro. Its gotta go

- India will win a few medals at London 

- Sachin will score his 100 of 100.

- I will finish half marathon in less than 2 hours. Or will I ;-)

- I'll host expense analyzer on the web. 

- Property prices will correct. I mean go down

Rob Paul to Pay Peter

India's economic situation is perhaps a classic example of Crowding Out. Economics 101. I'm surprised why no one has pointed it out yet. On one hand where our political class is behaving like a drunk on a binge, the wise bureaucracy, RBI is is trying to make up for this bad behavior by smothering growth.
Fiscal Irresponsibility.
- 6th Pay Commission
- NREGA
- Right to Food Act
- Waiving of loans

The govt is simply pumping money by doling out goodies to middle class(pay commission), farmers and laborers. No wonder this is stoking inflation. Part of inflation might be due to high commodity prices, but most of it is inbred.
Monetary Strangling
- 13 Interest Rate Hikes in the last 1.5 years.
In order to contain inflation, RBI is increasing the rates, fully aware that they are stifling growth, starving industry of investment they need. If one wants to see evidence of it, one can look at projected fiscal deficit of 4.6% to actual which is sure to exceed 5%. Choking growth is leading to lower tax revenues, thereby exacerbating the deficit (70% of GDP) and growing.

Congress has hijacked the nation and is building its vote bank by offering a social welfare state. Its a death spiral which may lead us to our next self inflicted crisis. Having withstood the global meltdown, we will be done in by our populist leaders.

Life without Tata Sky...

My parents are here and I'm taking a little break from my gym routine. Can feel my pouch grow. Goading habits haven't changed. Coming to the point, my TV went kaput 2 weeks ago. As I had bought it in the US, it took me some time to find someone to fix it. Now that its fixed, it plays everything by Tata Sky. I always had a problem playing Tata Sky though HDMI and Composite Video (they were both PAL encoded while TV is NTSC). I was however, able to use Component Video to connect and it worked perfectly well for a year. But now, that doesn't work either. There is a PAL / NTSC Converter available on Amazon for $159. I'm trying to find someone who is returning from the US who can bring it with him for me.

Delhi Metro Ridership

Some years back, Rediff carried an article on Delhi Metro. I was upset about the premature obituary they wrote, stating its a costly mistake.

The metro was expected to carry 2 million people daily. At the time of writing it was carrying about half a million. As the coverage increased, so did the ridership. Today, 5 years hence it ferries 1.7 million souls across Delhi, within striking distance of its planned capacity. I believe it should hit 2 million by this time next year.

Then in a couple of years, I believe they will write about how congested the metro has become and the present capacity is not enough. We will then talk about increasing the coaches in the rakes and reducing interval between 2 services. Wait till that happens...

Network Media Players

I've always been a fan of network media players. This love started with Roku SoundBridge M1001, way back in 2007.

Roku
Roku had an optical out that I connected to my Harman Kardon Amp. To stream the music I connected Roku to my laptop / external hdd using my wi-fi. It was a wonderful experience and gave a some boasting rights too. The only challenge I faced was the display, which was pretty small and so when browsing the song list I had to sit pretty close to the unit. Also, there was no Video Streaming available. Later on I discovered an iPhone app to control the Roku and it really changed my iteraction level. I could compose the playlist of the fly, mute, change volume etc. from the kitchen and without being in front of the unit. All that ended when I returned to India. The device did not survive the travel and I lost a great friend.

Roku has since come up with some really strong products that stream from Netflix and other sites like Youtube, Hulu etc. but they do not stream media from your collection and hence have limited utility for me. I bought their latest offering HDXR(2009), but returned it once I understood the limitations.

Xtreamer
Later last year I saw Xtreamer Pro in my brother-in-law's house. It was a boxy device, that contained his entire collection (Audio and Video). I liked it as it allowed local storage upto 4 TB. Though it did allow network connection, I think wi-fi dongle was an expensive accessory and bringing Wired Network to the player meant an ugly creepy wires crawling up and down the walls to reach the player.

iOmega Screenplay DX
Last month when browsing through Croma store in Mumbai,I chanced upon iOmega and Western Digital media players. I returned home and started my research. Between the two, I chose iOmega over WD for its Wi-Fi connectivity in the same price.

Essentially for Rs. 13000 you get
- 1 TB Space
- Wi-Fi Dongle
- Ability to connect to Internet and play Youtube, Netflix etc. (Only YouTube is useful in India as Netflix and other streaming sites are blocked).
- View most of the known Video / Audio Formats

I could get it for much less in the US but now its no longer an option.
Last weekend we watched BhejaFry-2 from YouTube on our TV, through iOmega Screenplay DX. I reserve my views on the movie, but the streaming was flawless. I wholeheartedly recommend iOmega to anyone wanting to set up home Media House. Its truly value for money.

iPad and Other Tablets

HP has pulled the plug on its new born TouchPad. Its sad and it underlines the dominance of iPad over its competitors. But the article itself has its flaws. It compares iPad success with iPod success. I think the comparison is misplaced. Survival of iPad like devices depends on the ecosystem that surrounds it. iPod succeeded due to an intuitive and comprehensive ecosystem of iTunes store and Desktop app. However, it was a small ecosystem. iPad on the other had is taking on Home PC / Laptop mkt. Here the ecosystem is large. It thrives on applications written and supported for the platform. Here, thanks to Andriod, there is a capable competitor. Google has already demonstrated its capabilities with the Andriod. Today, Andriod sells more than iPhone's iOS. Google is further upping the ante by buying Motorola's Mobile Arm.

In my view the Tablet wars are only starting to get serious now. This war will be fought in the next 5 years between. Apple needs to watch out for Andriod. Android has an equally strong ecosystem. With Apple shunning Flash, while Android embracing it, I think we will see Android HoneyComb and probably the next version of OS giving Apple a run for its money.

An Officer and a Gentleman

Hisdustan Times: Ashok Malik wrote a moving article on how India and Pakistan still remain connected through humanity. Having fought bitter wars, the Army and its officers remain sensitive and conscientious. Its one of the most moving account of human bonding and the fact the our nations remain connected even after partition.

Apple The Most Valued Company

10-Aug-2011 is a very special day. For the first time Apple became the most valued company in the world. What a story over the last 12 years. A fairy tale. Steve Jobs has played the best second innings in the history of business. People typically start a business and grow with it. No one starts a great business then leaves it and then comes back to rescue the business from the brink and takes it to the top. Its not just great. Its Divine.

Lets take a moment to reflect. Year 1997. Apple was struggling to survive. They got Steve back as an interim CEO. Michael Dell the legendary CEO of Dell Computers when asked to prescribe a solution suggested that Apple be shut down and money returned to Share Holders.

Steve wrote a jocular email to Apple employees, in Jan 2006 when Apple Market Value raced past that of Dell asking them to take a pause and reflect. If there ever was Poetic Justice...

US Credit Rating takes a Hit!

US Credit Rating was downgraded by S&P on Friday. What is it going to do to the world?Boom! Crash!??. I think not. In 2002, when S&P downgraded Japan's rating, what happened? Guess.... Nothing! Yes nothing.

Where are countries like China, going to put there excess money if not in Dollar? Euro is as unstable, maybe more. No other currency can play an alternative to USD. Hence, nothing will change on the ground. Of course there will be a bit of Huffing and Puffing for a few days. But it will soon subside as ppl go about their business as usual.

In fact, just a couple of days back after the Debt Ceiling was increased, the Yields for US treasuries went down to just 2.5% for 10 year maturity. Just because S&P downgraded USD 2 days after, will ppl now dump USD? I think not! Lets see how it goes...

I'm not sure of implications for India.

Road Rage is Back!

I thought I had outgrown Road Rage some 6-7 years back. I remember picking up fights with fellow commuters in 2000-2004 which sometimes got physical. I remember a night coming back from office, a maruti van splashed water on me. I used to drive maruti 800 and my windows were open. I got so wild I chased that van all the way to eastern express highway and in my attempt to corner the van I bumped a bike. I took the couple to the hospital, paid their bill, dropped them home and swore I won't lose my temper like that again...

But my rage is back with vengeance. It started with me buying our second car. Its a Honda Civic. Its big and its expensive. I even got an automatic as my office is a good 1.5 hrs drive in Mumbai traffic. I knew I would have to change my driving style considering its dimensions and our Indian way of driving. Like, I have tried driving in the right lane, maintain distance from the car ahead, you name it...

I knew it will be a challenge the first day I drove to office. The car is wide and we Indians drive too close to each other. I felt a distinct chill looking out of my left window to see the BEST bus drive past me(my car was still) just a few inches away. I held my breath till the bus was gone before I moved an inch. Then just a day before completing its first month, a Sumo brushed its bumper in Powai. JVLR was crowded and I was waiting at the signal when the Sumo driver brushed its rear bumper. By the time I got down to assess the damages, he had disappeared. Later the same week, right in my home parking lot a i10 brushed against its rear bumper again.

Couple of weeks later I was driving with my family to my daughter's school. The road was riddled with pot holes and I braked. The taxi behind me was driving so close to me that he did not see and rear ended the car. I asked my wife and kid to go ahead while a screamed at the taxi driver. I took the car to the workshop and got it fixed for 30K. Thanks to the Insurance I had to pay just 6K out of pocket( I know they will get me next year).

Just two days after I got my car back from the garage another car rear ended it. This time I lost it. I ranted like a maniac on the owner of the car only to find out later that he was my neighbor (he had recently rented the flat right under mine).

This was about a month ago. Yesterday, while I had stopped at a turn, a rick tried to maneuver right between the tiny space between my car and the road partition. I tried glowering at him and then tried to block him. The result, a gash on the side of the car.

Its not like I'm a new driver. I have driven car for more than 20 years, 4 of which were in the US. But for the first time, I today feel scared to drive. I go to my office counting the cars / ricks and other vehicles who butt in the tiniest of crevices between two cars. I've started hurling obscenities at the ricks who create parallel lanes cornering my car, rendering me immobile.

In more than a year after returning from the US, I thought I'm well adjusted. I was going along fine. Until now. The primitive instincts of me first and to hell with the rest have got to me. I've been on the receiving end a few times before but this time its really got me by my..... I loathe my fellow citizens. I shout from inside of rolled up windows. They can't hear me but I can. Its madness. Its surreal. Its bizarre. It goes on for 3 hours every day. It makes my throat hurt. Just looking at the gash as I get in/out of the car makes my blood boil. I HATE RICKS. They are like flies crowding, buzzing all around you. I feel like taking a fly squatter and going flap! flap! flap!. Today when driving to office, I even imagined an iPhone game of Road Rage where you can squash the Ricks under your thumb!!

I'm beginning to realize somewhere within me, I've started to hate this place, its people. This is land of the uncivilized. Here is to 5000 years of uncivil living.

Pulse Pressure

I personally have borderline hypertension, but not very concerning (per doctor). When trying the Digital BP instrument I got from the US, I checked my own BP. As one would expect the systolic pressure came to around 130. The diastolic was well within the normal range. It was around 72. As a layman I would have just left it there. I however, decided to research it over the internet. What I found, freaked me out. Its called Pulse Pressure. Basically its Systolic pressure - Diastolic pressure. For normal people its around 40. For me it was 60. So what? It seems some research shows that high pulse pressure increases stroke risk. 20% more risk for every 10 points beyond 40. Ouch!

Since I stopped running this spring, I am worried about my weight gain. I usually ran 25 KMs a week burning about 2500 cal. As I stopped running, I was fearing the worst. I was researching the net one day when I read about Green Tea and its benefits. It helps in burning fat and reducing weight. One of the several benefits was reducing heart problems. Its Godsent. I've started taking it regularly despite its taste. Its helped me keep my weight in check. I haven't gained a single pound in the last month despite stopping running. Yesterday, I measured my BP and was surprised to see my pulse pressure coming down to ~50.

This habit is for keeps. Green Tea. 1 liter of it every day. Served chilled in a bottle. Its worked wonders.

Android vs Apple

I was using Google Nexus for more than a year till one day(about 2 weeks back) I threw it in a fit of rage and broke something important enough for it to stop working.

I'm not getting into rationalizing what I did. The next day, I went and bought an iPhone 4 for 33K from Alpha.

Ever since, I've been tempted to write about how the two compare. So here goes.

Firstly, Android Nexus N is the best phone amongst Andriod phones because google updates it to the latest version of Andriod automatically. For other phones such as Motorola, HTC, Samgsung the ugrades are slow or practically non-existent. I personally was running 2.3.

With Maps and Wi-Fi Hotspot feature in iOS3. The feature gap with Android has really narrowed. The only big thing out of reach is Flash support. Ego goes beyond reason and technology. This one feature is hostage to Apple's bloated ego.


Usability in general
Andriod has too many option buttons to it. The back button, home button, search, right click kind. It can be a little overwhelming for a new person. Also, hepatic control of Nexus N didn't quite work out for my wife. I was kind of okay with it. My wife hated my phone.

My daughter never played with my Android. She loves my iPhone and iTouch. Simplicity is the key and iPhone scores big over Android.

Options which kick in if I press and hold the item offer more options but also need higher user sophistication. I liked some of these features in Android. iPhone keeps it simple. Android has wider options that iPhone.


Office Work
The biggest draw for me came from MS exchange sync. With my Android, I could never sync up my Calendar with my Office mail (MS exchange) even after the latest version upgrade where all I had to do is click a checkbox to sync my calendar. I tried loading Google Calendar tool and installing on my office laptop. Its a clumsy way of doing things and I really do not have permission to install apps on my office laptop. With iPhone it works like a charm. I'm really pleased with this feature.

The pasted excel tables emails get completely distorted in Android. iPhone retains the formatting.

Grouping the conversations is supposed to be a Google thing. Ironically I have that feature in iPhone and is missing in Android (for my office mails).

The time it takes to load the mail content after I click on it is pathetically slow in Android. Its zipping fast in iPhone.

Media Player
One thing I liked about Android is that I could choose to build the playlist on the fly by keep adding to the currently playing list. iPhone does not have it.

One feature about iOS 4.3 I love is that I can play media including video stored on my local network on my iphone. Yesterday I watched a good part of Charlie Wilson's War on my iPhone streaming from my network drive. It was cool.

Gadgets controls such as media player were on my home screen on Android. Not so on iPhone.

Phone Quality
The iPhone Camera is better than Android.
The voice quality of iPhone is better.
The voice levels of iPhone is better.
Speaker phone of iPhone is better.
Battery life is the same.

Network
Switching to Wi-Fi was always a problem with my nexus one. It would keep me on my mobile Edge network even when I was at home. To move it to Wi-Fi, I had to go to settings and Wi-Fi. Not that I had to choose the network, but I needed to go navigate to the screen before my Nexus one realized it had a Wi-Fi available and then it would switch to it.

My edge network would disappear a couple of time a day at office. I had to go to Airplane mode and come back to get my Edge back.

iPhone does not have either of these problems. Good.

My earphone socket on the Andriod had started giving me trouble some time back(after about a year of use). I'll know about iPhone as I use it.

Overall, I'm happy I made the switch. For me iPhone rules.

Run!

Having completed 1 year of running, I presented myself a bright Red Nike jersey. It had "Run" printed on it. I liked it for its simplicity. No big words, no fancy / witty captions. Means exactly what it reads.

I had fancied running Half Marathon in less than 2 hours. It was not an unrealistic dream. It was well calibrated. Based of my past performance and had "Realistic" stamped all over it. I even came close to achieving it back in Feb.

Thane Marathon is a little tougher than Mumbai Stan Chart as it traverses Ghodbunder Road which is a little hilly in parts. I did 1min 20secs over 2 hours, which translates to about ~220 meters in a 21 KM race. It was my first formal Half Marathon run and best time for the distance. In the past 2 (informal / practice) attempts, I had clocked 9 min and 12 min over.

With ACL injury, running another half marathon seems a tall order. The doc has said no to running. MRI wasn't very positive. Hence, I have stopped running completely. I think I'll start again after the monsoons. I'll also apply for the next Mumbai Marathon. Whether I'm able to run, is just a Rs.600 question (participation fee).

Run Forrest Run

I'm tense and scared. I've done MRI on my right knee and will be consulting the doctor tomorrow. I hope the doctor will find some way to keep me going on the tread mill.

I've been a decent athlete but never really been a runner. The farthest I had ever run was in 1997. It was probably around 4 kms and I almost died getting back home. I re-discovered running in the winter of 2009.

Trying to lose weight, I found running possibly the most effective way of keeping healthy. 3 months into running, I got my cholesterol numbers under control, in 6 months, I stripped 2" off my waist.

In Jan-2010, my boss visited the US. Sameer is a fit man. He is about 7 years my senior and pretty energetic. He told me about his maiden half marathon experience and I started wondering if I could ever run 13 miles.

The day he left, I started taking running seriously. Winter of 2010 was one of the harshest winters in DC with record snowfall. As I could not go out, I took Washington gym membership and started running on treadmill. I still remember the first time I ran 6 miles in an hour. It was early march and it was late night (10:00 pm) I finished running. I was the only one there. I had raised my hands like I was crossing the ribbon at the end of the race.

By early April, I was doing 10 mile run once a week. And finally on the day I turned 37, I ran my first half marathon. It was on the treadmill, and I clocked, 02:09. It was tiring, but it felt good.

After I returned to Mumbai I took up membership at the local gym. I always ran on the treadmill. At office, I met a few enthusiasts, and we started comparing notes. By August, I was seriously practicing for Mumbai Marathon. Unfortunately, last year was the first time they introduced qualifying time and selection lottery. As I had never run a Marathon before, my name was put through the lottery and rejected. I received the check for Rs. 570 with a regret letter couple of weeks before the race. It broke my heart. I decided to run my own half marathon on the eastern express highway. It was the first time I ran the distance on the road. Let me just say it was quite different from running on a tread mill in the cosy confines of a gym.

I researched the net and found out another marathon was being planned in Thane on 27-Feb. I jumped on the opportunity and got myself registered. I had now started practicing on the road. During one of these practice runs, I felt pain in my right knee. The pain persisted for a day and then went away.

I finally ran the Half Marathon on the D-day clocking 02:01. I thought it was okay for a almost 38 yr first timer. The next day however, I could not walk. My knee hurt so much, I could not bend it.

From then on, my knee would hurt every I'd run and the next day and then it would be okay. As time progressed, it became worse, I stopped running on the road and went back to the treadmill. But the hurt kept worsening. I reduced the distance from 16kms to 10 to 8 to 5.

Then last week I finally decided to visit a doctor. He has asked to just stop running completely and ordered xray and MRI to check damage to bone / cartilage. He will review my case tomorrow.

Mohit Chauhan

I remember the days in B-School hostel, we'd get the guitar and start practicing Scorpions, Pink Floyd chords when I first heard of Silk Route. Dooba Dooba made them famous. I liked the song in an instant. Thats how it works most times. You hear a new song and your mind makes decides in about 30 secs whether it likes the song or not. I loved the song but never heard another good song from Silk Route. Later the group fell by the way-side. When digital mp3 players came, I downloaded the song and it became part of my collection.

Then in 2009 I was visiting India and we were returning from Kashet when I heard Masakali. Loved it in less than 10 secs. Then came doorian and I became curious about the singer. Isn't it great that even as we grow older and set in our ways we can still be excited about new songs and new singers.

Over the last few years Mohit Chauhan has sung several good songs. I love his laid back style, the way his voice modulates. He has no formal training in Music(like Kishore Kumar) and yet he continues to build his repertoire. My favorites include
- Ye Doorian
- Masakali
- Abhi Kutch Dinon Se (reminds me of Dooba Dooba)
- Man Lafanga
- Tujhe Bhula Diya
- Tum se hi
- Pi Loon

Hope in coming years he keeps adding to this list. Know what, part of the credit is Pritam's. I like Pritam's music.

A Random Thought

Someone dear to me lost his mother last week. It has shaken him up a bit and its but natural. I spoke with him yesterday and he started talking of spirituality. Not my cup. However, it intrigued me. I haven't read any scriptures. Not true. I tried Gita a few years back when my daughter was born but did not find it very engaging and I haven't thought about it since. Until now.

Anyhow, here is the thought. Most of the events around us are triggered by factors we have no influence over. Be it 8.9 tremor off Japan coast or 1984 Bhopal Gas Leak or the traffic jam during rush hour. As these are governed by nature or unintended consequence of human behavior, to me these are acts of God. And while I did not trigger them, I still need to respond to them as they affect me.

Here comes causality. As I understand my reactions are a combination of my nature and nurture / conditioning. Research shows, a man is mostly governed by his intrinsic nature. To me intrinsic nature is also an act of God as its mostly chance, largely random. Nurture is the only partially controllable variable. Even here, social environment, peer group etc.(external) have fair amount of influence compared to parental nurture(controllable).

So, with so much up to God / Chance, the responses to these externalities should also be random. Does everyone inherently have the same power to tune one's response to these happenings(nature once again)? If not, then has God has played dice with each of us and indeed some of us are blessed, while others are not and guess what, its random.

An then, if this were true, how do you explain the contrast in human behavior in the aftermath of Katerina and Japan Tsunami? Both were acts of God and yet in one place there was widespread looting while in another, there was none.

Losing it!

It all started in September of 2009. My family was visiting me in Virginia and my wife made some unkind remarks about my exploding waistline. I was pushing 200 pounds and it was showing up everywhere. The tell tale buckle marks on the leather belt, the triple chin, you name it... The blood report confirmed the indulgent lifestyle, with soaring cholesterol and triglycerides.
After they had left, I tried taking a shot at redemption through exercise. For the first time in about a year of living there, I ventured into our community Gym. It had 3 treadmills and 2 ellipticals. I climbed atop one of the treadmills and was pretty impressed with the results. I did about 4 miles in 30 minutes. I went around boasting about it to others in my office till finally another guy living in the same complex finally burst my bubble. It seems all the 3 treadmills were seriously mis-calibrated giving fools a false high. I decided to validate the theory. I got a free one day pass to a near by Washington fitness center and tried repeating the magic. To my embarrassment, I hardly completed about 0.5 miles @8 miles an hour before I had to get off the treadmill panting.

I finally switched over to ellipticals and found them most useful for burning calories. They don't stress your knees and yet they could be as effective (or more in some cases) as the treadmills.

I also started to read up about losing weight, probably for the first time in my life. It seems one needs to burn 3500kcal to lose 1 pound. Typically if you exercise hard like a regular you could burn about 700-800 kcal in an hour. It meant if I did not change my diet, I would have to exercise about 5 days a week to lose a pound. And so in another first, I started looking out of healthier eating options. I found a great app, loseit on iphone and I started keeping track of what I ate and how much I exercised. Loseit is a great app, and I'd recommend it to anyone trying to lose weight. Unfortunately, it does not have good data on Indian food. So I had to research the net to find the cal value of butter chicken, chole and some and add them to the list.

The results started showing in about 6 weeks. Loseit kept count of cal deficit and with minor adjustments, I calibrated it to weighing scale at home. By the time I returned to Mumbai, in May-10, I had lost more than 25 pounds and 2 inches off my waist.

For the first time since leaving grad school(10 yrs), I could fit into 32" trousers. It felt great. I actually threw away all my 34" trousers with a commitment to self that I'll stay within 32" waistline.

Its been almost a year since my return and I have to admit that the battle of "bulge" is never won. I have to keep an eye on my food as every now and then I binge and then it shows up on the weighing scale. So far, I've been able to keep my weight and my promise to self, but then I fight this battle every day.

End of the Road for Ikon

My first car happened to be Ford Ikon. Ikon had it good for a few years after launch, especially around 2003-2004. It was sporty, inexpensive and fun to drive. It had a horrible mileage though. But then Ford never really worked on modernizing the car. And finally here is the Obituary for iconic Ikon. RIP my loved one.

Break Ke Baad...

Well I did take a break. More than a year off blogger. A few things have changed around me. I'm back in Mumbai with my family. That happened about 10 months ago :). Other than that, I've lost weight and hair from a year ago. Proud of the first and wary of the latter.
We have done up our house. I like the way it turned out.
Work life is long and punishing especially the travel.
Don't have to do daily household chores anymore. Loving it.
Hope to write more often.

India's gift to the US

Obama seems to be intimidated by India and its ability to produce scientists and engineers. What he does not know yet is that hundreds of thousands of engineers and scientists are being tutored in Indian schools, paid for by their parents who will start coming to US in the next 15 years to bolster their Intellectual Pool.

There is a mania amongst Indians IT professionals to have their kids born in the US so that they can be US citizens. All these H1-B and L1 engineers may not get GC and may return to India after a few years in the US. However, they all return with toddlers who are US citizens. These kids are given best possible education in India and will be packed off to US as soon as they complete college.

This new breed of US citizens being brought up in India will fill the deficit of engineers and doctors in the US. It could get any better. These kids do not live off the public education system, do not use up tax dollars while growing up. They come back as fully developed and productive members of the work force.

This is kind of surreal. But unknowingly US is safeguarding its future by providing citizenship to all born in the country.

Food Inflation hits 19.95%

Is it good news or Bad news? Its bad news for all the consumers but may not be that bad for the producers. I think the biggest beneficiaries of the food inflation are the farmers. With eChaupal and the modern communication (cell phones), they can find out the prevailing rates for various produces across markets (local and global). This gives them an opportunity to negotiate the rates better. The biggest losers though are the urban people. They are at the mercy of wholesalers. From a purely political pov, it may not have the severe backlash in an agrarian society such as India. If there are severe side supply side constraints, then perhaps the govt can allow import of vegies and pulses. We have enough Foreign Currency reserves to cushion the imports.

Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP)

I read about CK Prahalad's vision for India to build 500 new cities to accommodate migrating population on rediff. I could not agree more. In fact I've been thinking about it for some years now. Thats what we need to do. Build cities from scratch. Perhaps all district centers should be planned to accommodate upto 1 million people. That way we can move rural people to city centers and move away from agrarian society to manufacturing based society.

This led me to drive down to the local library and bring back the book Profits at The Bottom of the Pyramid.

I'm yet to start the book but I'm pretty excited about it. Long ago when I was doing my MBA, I did my summer project in the wilderness of MP (Dhar and Obedullahgunj) that's where I first formed the thought of the concept. To have sustainable progress, it has to be profitable rather than charitable.

Its good to know that someone like C K Prahalad thinks the same.

Can't wait to start the book.

Lets Build Some Cities

I read about CK Prahalad's vision for India to build 500 new cities to accommodate migrating population on rediff. I could not agree more. In fact I've been thinking about it for some years now. Thats what we need to do. Build cities from scratch. Perhaps all district centers should be planned to accommodate upto 1 million people. That way we can move rural people to city centers and move away from agrarian society to manufacturing based society.

Lage Raho IRCTC

I read this article in Business Standard today. This is awesome news. India is moving to internet slowly but surely. I've been a regular customer since 2003. Sometime in 2005, I got a mail from them thanking its users, stating they hit 100,000 tickets a month. I smirked, ha! 100,000 a month, about 3300 a day. India is a loser on internet when compared to other countries. We will take a long time to get there blah blah. Just 4 years from then I now read people reserving 300,000 tickets a day. This is phenomenal. This to me is harbinger. India has arrived to internet. If you build it, they will come and click.

Really happy today to read this article. I'd long been a skeptic. Now I'm a convert.

Housing Price to Rent Ratio

Historically the price to annual rent ratio in the US was around 16-18 in most places, rarely going above 20 except in places like California. When I compare that to India, I see the ratios in excess of 30 in most places.

This is really high compared to US. In US the interest rates are around 4-8% vs 10% in India. The tenure of loan in US is about 30 years while in India its 20. In US the entire interest amount is tax deductible while in India its only upto 1,50,000. In us there are no tax deductions on rent while in India we do. In India, the rent control acts etc are so heavily in favor of the tenants that owners prefer keeping the house empty. This reduces the supply of rentable property. All of these factors point to a lower price-to-rent ratio. But its not.

In my view the properties in India are far overpriced than in US. Given the above one would expect the ratio to be 10. I do not see prices correcting that much. I think its not worth investing in a housing property unless you see remarkable growth in real estate value of the house. Housing as investment is really not worth it. One should buy a house only to live in it.

Indian IT Exports

About 4 years ago I read a post in rediff about a Mckenzie report that projected India to achieve IT exports of $62 billion by 2008. It sounded phony and I mentioned so at that time in my blog. Today I read this article in TOI stating India achieved $50 billion in IT exports in 2008. Falling short by 20%. I really would like to know how these projections are made. I understand the need to make these projections, so that the CEOs and IT pundits and drop these numbers to project their own interests, but seriously, I do not think there is much thought behind these models.

Partial Capital Account Convertability

I've read all but last 30 pages of the Paul Krugman's book. This has been an enlightening book on economics. I refrain from hyperbole because I read so little, its tough to compare with other books.

This has also been a journey of discovery. I have come to appreciate India's stand on partial capital account convertability. Its been demonstrated time and again, how assets bubbles are created through foreign investments and how a country could face financial crisis owing to no fault of theirs but only because of speculators, sentiment and lack of depth of their own financial markets.

I have now started believing that unless a country has enough depth in its own financial markets, it should not let free inflow and outflow of capital. The sheer volume and speed of the flow and cause bubbles or busts (depending on which way the flow goes).

The reason India remained relatively unaffected by Asian crisis, and to some extent US meltdown is because of these curbs, regulations and checks. I now see the wisdom of it. A country needs to manage its transition to prosperity on its own terms. India is doing it, and so is China. Chinese Yuan used to quote @8.25 in early 2005 and around the time I visited Shanghai. Today its quoting @6.8. Its about 16% gain in 4 years. Its gradual, managed and thats how it should be done.

Corollary to Previous Post

US stock mkt has gone up for the last 7 sessions. This is indeed good news for the investors. My view is that this is largely due to increased liquidity. Another proof of increased liquidity is emerging markets. As the financial crisis threatened the US economy, the investors sold their holdings across the world and flocked back to the US. Now that the monetary policy is easing, the money is flowing back to the emerging economies.

In principle, US is a leaky economy, i.e. if there is too much liquidity and PE is high, the money will exit US shores and go to rest of the world in search of better returns. In the 60s,70s and 80s, the world was relatively closed. But with globalization, capital is flowing to developing economies in search of above average returns.

It is my view that US mkt is saturated and therefore there will not be too much upside to stocks in the US. In the coming years, the spending in US will be fueled by growth of investments outside of US. Just like the housing and stock bubbles, US money will now stoke bubbles in emerging economies and fuel internal consumption backed by gains in these economies.

The interest rates in the US will remain depressed for years to come as these investments will bear fruits only some time down the road.

The same happened in Japan in the 90's when interest rates were depressed to 0 and capital was available cheap. The east asian economies swelled due to capital inflows from Japan. Investors could borrow cheap from Japan and then lead at higher rates in countries like Thailand, Korea, Mylasia etc. Only this time the amount of money will be bigger and will create bubbles in developing countries across the world.

The good news is that Indian stock market will receive a lot of money from US investors, at least in the short run.

Anatomy of a Crisis

I'm reading "The Return of Depression Economics" by Paul Krugman. A very enlightening book for a coffee table economist like me. He traverses the history of meltdowns across the world from Latin America to South East Asia. A very interesting journey indeed. This journey triggered a thought in my mind. If its brought out later in the book, I'm not aware. Its not there in the first 100 pages and given my ageing memory I thought it best to write it down before I forget it. So here goes.

Size of Economies
All these crisis economies (Mexico, Argentina, Thailand) etc. are essentially small, unlike US or Japan. The businesses within the country do not have much power to move the indexes too much for their lack of resources. The outside players such as US and Europe pump in money or pull it out as they feel. Though the money they pump in or pull out is small change to these countries, they are substantial sum when compared to size of these economies.

I've read somewhere that speculators add liquidity and depth to the market. In financial markets of these countries when sentiments change, the first world speculators collectively move to one end of the spectrum (buy or sell), lets say 10 funds. Even if there are 100 other operators within the country that wanted to buy at lets say 10% less than current price, they can't buy all the load thats coming their way. This reduces the prices beyond their natural bottom(bottom it would have settled if external and internal operators had about equal buying powers).

The sheer size of their economies makes these countries more susceptible to crisis. That's how I could explain the Contagion effect.

Currencies
Another point. When these countries face crisis, the currencies get hammered because the pulls out the money. However, when a Crisis hits the biggies, the currencies appreciate. For example, before the 2008 crisis hit US, Rupee was trading at 43 per dollar. The moment Crisis hit us in September, rupee dropped to 50 and beyond, more than 15%. India is not much of an export driven economy compared to lets say South Korea(25% of GDP vs 40% of GDP. They have comparable GDPs). I also checked Australian Dollar vs USD The AUD dropped from 1.2 in Sep-08 to 1.5 Dec-08. Why did this happen?

America and Europe have huge hordes of money. Though most of that money is invested in US and Europe, a significant part is also invested in other parts of the world. So when a credit crisis happened in the US, all this money across the world flooded in to the rescue bolstering liquidity cushioning the fall. Same with Yen. The Japanese had the 12% contraction in GDP (Q4 2008) vs 6% in US. Their currency actually appreciated against the USD (112 in the end of 2007 vs 90 at the end of 2008).

In effect, the anatomy of crisis in Big and Rich countries is a little different. They are better protected against the crisis just because they could call upon investments in other countries to cushion the blow.

Punishment to a small country for their economic sins is far harsher compared to the rich. Didn't I just prove the social aspect of crime and punishment in economic terms. Ha!

Headed for a Jobless Recovery

The size of the Balance Sheets for US banks and companies is shrinking. Companies are fighting to stay profitable in this challenging environment. And they will succeed, I'm sure of that fact. Challenge is how to grow the company. No one is focusing on it and I do not think it would be on their radar for some time. As a result, companies will turn around. Leaner, meaner(literally) and profitable. If the companies fire enough people, shut down enough plants and cut enough costs and yet survive they will eventually be profitable, albeit with a smaller revenue base. However, the people that were spitted out with pink slips will not be assimilated back in the system anytime soon. Net, Net this will be a jobless recovery and it may take a decade or more to reach full employment of 4-5%.

Illusion of Progress

Level A is a constant.

In 2003 joined my present company. I reported to X who reported to A. I was a PL. In 2004 I got promoted to PM. At the same time a layer was created between X and A. So Me->X->Y->A. In 2005 I started reporting to Y. So Me->Y->A. In 2006 I got promoted to AGM and shipped to US. Here once again reporting became, Me->X->Y->A. In 2008 I got yet another promotion to become a Delivery Manager and my reporting became Me->Y->A. In 2009 Y introduced another layer and currently my reporting is Me->Z->Y->A. That is after 6 years in the company and 3 promotions.

I call this illusion of progress. Its quite Dilbert like.

Fed is Printing money. Want Some?

Over the last 3 months, BSE has almost doubled. How much of that is to do with the fundamentals? I think very little. The Exports in Apr were down 33%. Satyam just showed the back door to 10000 employees. Why are markets celebrating? Is it because of new found confidence in the congress govt? No, I think its because of increased money supply from the US. Here is the theory. Ben decides to pump prime the economy by printing money. But the money does not stay in US alone. It leaks out of it. See how porous the US borders are (Mexicans are leaking in and $ is leaking out). Once out that money finds its way to India and other emerging markets.

Last fall, decline in Indian mkt was sharp largely because of flight of capital from India to US / Europe. The tide has since turned and what we are seeing that the swell of the tide is equally unrelated to fundamentals.

If this money had stayed in the US it would have a multiplier effect. But as its leaked out, that multiplier effect is lost causing Ben Bhaiya to print even more money. If the money does not find its way to India, it finds its way into the speculative Oil market. The US oil consumption is down to 2000 levels and yet the oil prices are going up.

I used to think that India should deregulate the gas prices to let them find their own level. However, given that the speculators can skew the market on their whim and how volatile they have made the oil market, I have started to wonder if India is right in regulating the gas prices. The price stability is far more preferable compared to wild swings.

Cramer VS NOBEL

Yesterday Mr. Mad money spent 5 minutes blasting the Nobel laureates such as Paul Krugman and other PHDs to stop fear mongering. To stop spreading fear in the people about weak economy. He feels all these PHDs should should shut up and listen to what he has to say. What he says is really is a bull byproduct than the bull rally he keeps talking about. He is predicting housing recovery by 30-Jun and that US recovery will be V shaped.

30-Jun is just about 6 weeks away. We'll see. The April housing report though does not seem very rosy.

Nano Bookings ~200,000

This article in Business Standard confirms that Nano is not as great a success as people had expected. Some analysts expected more than a million bookings. But this is not to be. A Car is not just a way of commuting. Its also a social expression, Status Symbol and small cars are going out of fashion (read affordability going up is pushing out small cars).

About a year ago, I had expressed my skepticism about Nano's success. India is not as poor as Ratan Tata would have you believe. With second hand cars market booming and all kinds of cars available on EMI almost immediately, why would someone want to wait a year for a car?

To measure the true success we need to wait till people start driving the first cars rolling out of the production lines. If these cars face any problems that get published in the media and catch public fancy, we may see cancellations of existing bookings. I say we give it another year and see how it goes.

Housing Sector In India

DLF posted their results for the 4th quarter and the entire year.

Is revenues plunging by 97% is not a catastrophe? House buyers have just clammed down. Comparing it to US, where the dust still hasn't settled, the house sales are actually flat or marginally lower over last year.

I think the only reason India is still standing is because housing and mortgage industry in India is still small compared to other parts of the economy and so not so badly impacted by this precipitous fall. Ppl are much less leveraged and they can hold on to their houses for ever rather than sell at a lower or default. This only makes the housing mkt in India very illiquid in times of downturn. Also, this means that it would take a long time for this housing crises to correct.

Sidebar: How is DLF still making money with 3% of its revenue? Unless all its costs are variable costs, this just does not seem reasonable. What about interest payments to banks and other depreciation? The sales came doen from 1600 crore to 56 crore and yet they made 30 crore profit. I accept I do not get the real estate business.

An Interim World

Interesting Article this one. Freddie Mac Interim CEO thanks ex-CEO to take on the role of Interim CFO as the present Interim CFO committed suicide.

So much so for govt run organizations. After all govt is filling in as Interim Caretaker till Freddie can wriggle out of Interim Crisis ;)

Books This Year

Disclaimer: I'm not a voracious reader.
I generally read about 3-4 books a year. This year has been slow as usual. I started with White Tiger. I loved the brutal, honest, vivid and sometimes repulsive description of life in "The Darkness". Anyone who has journeyed across India in a train can recall how apt the descriptions were. The character of Balram Halwai was too gray and almost impossible to judge. As Oscar Wilde once said, "Every Saint has a past and every sinnner has a future." In the end I'm unable to feel happy for him though he comes out of the predicament on top. I believe Balram had something in common with the tycoons, the dictators and hardened criminals. I call it self centeredness. Anyhow, the book is a gem.

The second one I read was Amitav Ghosh's Hungry tide. I thought there was too much prose in the book without adequate meat. It meandered like the river itself and never really got my interest. I liked Piya's character. I admire women with resolve and conviction. But then the author spent too much time showing off his knowledge of geography, aquatic life in the Ganga basin and such, impeding the flow of the book. I would not recommend it.

Satyam, A Happy Ending

And the winner is... Tech Mahindra! Good job Govt of India! There are are purists that say that govt. should not meddle with business of business. Yet, I could not think of a more expeditious way of handling satyam sell off.

I think responsible governance means knowing when to step in and when to step out. A few months back I read an article in NY times about YV Reddy, our ex- RBI Gov. The columnist went on extolling his work in keeping a check on the banks and regulating their investments in the realty sector. YV Reddy, tried the best he could to rein in the real estate bubble. He disallowed ECB, asked banks to raise risk weighting for real estate investments, limited the exposure banks could have to real estate and raised interest rates. Not that it completely deflated the housing bubble, but it did help in moderating it.

Regulation could be good and bad. Only history can tell if the decisions taken today had the desired results. Obama is making some very bold moves. These could help restore confidence in the US financial sector and US economy in general or plunge it into the abyss of debt for generations. Is he doing the right thing? Lets wait a few years till History Channel brings back the Credit Crisis of 2008 to your idiot box on prime time.

Road to Recovery

Starting 9-Mar-09 when Vikram Pandit, the CEO of Citi sent out the internal memo stating Citi made money in Jan and Feb, Dow has rallied from 6500 to almost 8000. Same with markets world wide. Indian mkt has bounced back from 8K to 10K.

In fact I have started seeing some mkt reports stating the recovery is just round the corner, sometime mid year, and it would be a strong recovery.

I somehow do not think so. I think, this is a false start. The malice is so deep and so wide spread, its going to be at least a year before recovery kicks in.

So I'm predicting that the stock markets will fall again. I've been wrong on numerous occasions. Lets see if this is one another one.

China raising concerns about US Debt

Couple of weeks back Bernanke said he is going to buy back 1.2T worth of long term securities, to inject more liquidity into the market. Where is the Fed going to find $1.2T? What it essentially meant was that US is going to print 1.2T worth of money to dole itself out of the hole.

Now US is not like Zimbabwe which prints money at will. The reason is, most of the countries around the world use USD as their foreign currency reserves. China in particular holds more than 1T dollars worth of US treasury bonds. Its now feeling cheated as US uses its $ mint to work its way out of the mess. This would result in a sharp decline in the value of USD against other world currencies and China will be hurt as its parked its hard earned money in USD.

The problem though is, there is no other alternate currency that can substitute USD. Yen and Euro are worse off than USD and perhaps do not have the scale to become an alternative to USD.

There is some talk about coming up with some other international currency / basket of currencies as an alternative to USD. But in the mean while, if China / Japan lose their confidence in USD, the US economy is going to get into even bigger trouble.

Kindle the Devine Intervention

I've never been an avid reader. My wife though over compensates for me. She went to India last oct and has been missing the public libraries and the joy of reading. She could finish 6 books a week and still have time on her hands. All that changed once she moved back. We do have Crossroads right across from our house in Mumbai and she goes there every now and then to buy books. Yet she maintains that the collection is not as wide as she wants.

When I visited her in Feb, I gifted her an ipod touch and tried to show her eReader/Stanza (ebook readers for ipod touch) but could not get her interested in reading on an electronic device. A few weeks later, "The curious case of Benjamin Button" came to PVR and she loved the movie. She wanted to read the book and fortunately it was available under free books on Stanza. I showed how to download it and slowly her resistance dissolved.

Last week I read that Kindle is now available for iphone and itouch. Yesterday, we sat together (on skype) to set it up. She had seen seen revolutionary road last week and loved it so much that she badly wanted to read the book. Crossroads did not have it and it was available as ebook on Amazon for $9. It took us all but 10 minutes to set up Kindle, buy the book and download it on her kindle. By the time we were done she was as excited as our 4 years old when watching Chota Bheem.

Technology is shaping our lives in so many ways. This is just one of the things but it makes her feel she need not be in us to be able to enjoy the best books. I'm just happy to see her happy. If I could, I'd wind up everything and go back home tomorrow.

Gulaal Music

Haven't really seen the movie yet but heard the songs. Never heard such dark songs in my life. I could have bought the CD but then, some of the songs are not for casual listening at all.

Aarambh is awe inspiring. In contemporary movies, I do not recollect such a song being penned down. I loved Omkara song as it was like an Aalha and Gulzaar did a good job of describing Omkara as a warlord and Sukhvinder did a great job rendering it. Piyush Mishra seems to be a find. I'd say its the most inspirational war cry I've ever heard. Reminded me of Dinkar. I once owned Rashmirathi (his Kaayva on Karna) and this comes close. Real close.

I'm eagerly awaiting DVD release of the movie. Want to watch it.

Loved Dev-D

I saw Dev-D in the theater and loved it. Its in the same class as Maqbool and Omkara. Anurag Kashyap is one of the most audacious directors of our times(Vishal Bharadwaj is another). Paro's depiction is so unconventional that it just blew me away. The scene where she comes to his house and cleans it were one of the most poignant moments of the film. The songs are catchy. Emotional Atyachar is cool.

It was so refreshing to watch a contemporary take on a classic. The end, though a little filmy, did not seem unrealistic as most ppl say. Then perhaps I'm an optimist...

Looking fwd to view Gulaal. Reviews seem to be good.

US vs Japan

Japan had a huge foreign currency reserve when it plunged into recession in 1990. It kept throwing the reserves at the economy in the hope to revive it and yet did not succeed.

US on the other hand has a huge credit line with the rest of the world. It does not have much reserves to talk about but it can borrow from the entire world to revive its economy till? Till the world no longer believes its worth losing their hard earned money on someone who longer has the same credit worthiness as it once had and a bigger debt than it can service.

Give US another 4 years, by the time Obama completes his 4 years US will be in a worse mess than its today.

Mumbai Carnage

As I was flipping through the channels I saw CNN streaming about terrorist attack in Mumbai. It took me time to figure out how bad it really was. I do not think Mumbai really recovered from the blasts of 2006. This time however, their audacity seems to have gone up. Instead of planting bombs, these guys actually went on a rampage, shooting indiscriminately and mowed 125 ppl. The terrorists have become more ambitious. They are not happy just killing India's common man, they want international recognition. And boy, did they get it? CNN in US is streaming nothing else but terror in Mumbai for the last 30 hours.

I think the entire intelligence system in India is rotten. Terrorists have been able to strike at will and at any location of their choice, without our intelligence ever knowing anything about it. Be it Jaipur or Bangalore or Delhi or Surat or Ahemedabad. We haven't really been able to crack these cases even afters months of investigation. Something is seriously broken somewhere. The terrorists are ahead of us and they know how to leverage technology better than us.

Its a problem cutting across party lines and administration. We need to make the right investments in upgrading our forces and making our nation more secure.

I wish I could help, if only I knew how.

Will Obama Succeed?

There are so many expectations around the world from President Elect Obama that he may look like the messiah in a 100 years from now. This article in Nytimes collates the hope of the world. It would be a tall order to live upto the hope or hype as you may see it.

I personally think that Obama has just too many Challenges to overcome. Good thing is he is focusing on the economy first. That itself would take most of his initial months, if not years. As for foreign policies, the middle east would give him a fair chance to come through. It all depends on how he balances Isreal and the Arab world.

I think he will not be able to live up to the hype. When McCain talked about lack of track record, he was right. We do not know which way Obama is going to lean. But this certainly is America's best chance to make up to the world. Somehow I don't feel reassured. I want to be wrong on this one. I want him to be the Glue that holds the world together and yet, I'm not so sure.

Real Danger of Deflation

We have been worried sick by rising prices of commodities. It was largely due to movement of money from stock markets to the commodities market. The issue with commodities is that for most things (such as oil and food) the demand is price inelastic. That is world has to live with whatever the Oil costs. The decrease in consumption due to price shock is not very high. Same with food. In the past year a lot of liquidity left stock markets and fled to commodities. All of that is now changing with tightening liquidity. Punters are unwinding their positions and so size of the futures market is shrinking. I've not seen the numbers but I can promise you that the capital in futures mkt has shrunk more than the equities mkt.

This is also causing the prices of underlying commodity itself to crash. Oil has already come down from 147 to 64 in 3 months despite OPEC cutting production. Same will happen to food and other commodities and by this time next year a large part of the world will see deflation. It would be largely on account of high base in 2008, but I do expect prices to go down.

Same will happen to interest rates in India. By end of next year housing demand will pick up due to softening of interest rates.

Rupee is going to Appreciate

Now that the Credit Freeze in US is thawing, tide of Dollars is also going to reverse. I think the reason Dollar went up against all the currencies(except yen for the same reason though) is that US money was invested in all corners of the world. When the Credit Crisis happened, the US investors bolted from these market, dumped everything they had in local investments to convert to Dollars and brought that money over to US.

With the Credit Crisis blowing over, some of this money will find its back to these markets. In January, with the start of new financial year, US investors will start putting their money in various countries including India. Also, the price of Oil is now more reasonable and therefore I would think that the rupee now should appreciate to 45 like levels by Jan-09

Impact of Global Meltdown on China

This could be the biggest challenge for the most populous country in the world. For decades China has been growing by being the world's manufacturing base. Prosperity had kept the dissenters from voicing their thoughts against the communist regime.

All that is now set to change. With the slowdown, will come slower growth(the GDP growth in China for 3rd Quarter is already come down to 9%) and joblessness and with it will come mass unrest putting great strain on the country's political system.

Unless China can generate internal consumption to keep its people engaged and prosperous the political scene could change there in the next 3-4 years. There will be a meltdown in coming years. How long can the govt differ it is to be seen.

What could help is large scale govt spending on Infrastructure projects and welfare schemes. Good news is that with 2 Trillion dollars they have the deep pockets to make it happen. How well they manage it still needs to be seen. One thing is for sure, in this Global Financial Crises, the stakes for China are as high as for US.

HDFC Bank Market Cap Overtakes ICICI Bank

This is incredible. Just goes on to show that Banking is fundamentally a conservative business. If you do not run it that way, you are likely get into trouble sooner or later. Being bigger, more aggressive etc. has come to naught as HDFC bank whizzes by. FYI, I checked these numbers based on closing price of stocks on 22-Oct-08.

I have known a few ex ICICI guys and they pride themselves in being aggressive and mkt share. Thats what has driven them. Mkt share. That obviously has led to placing bad bets. All of these problems with indiscriminate lending and poor credit control is coming back to haunt them now. I think they got lucky last year when they raised money from the market at around Rs. 980. Now the share price is trading less than Rs. 400.

A good lesson on Banking. Be Conservative.

VP Ansari's Speech at AMU

I read this article in Indian Express and was much moved. At a time of partisan and communal politics, this kind of speech is like a breath of fresh air. I completely agree to this thoughts. Education and Equity. Muslim integration with the main stream will hinge on how the new generation embraces education and if requires asserts itself for equitable treatment.

Housing Market Rebound

Housing market is nowhere near its bottom, per this report. The 1 year rent to price ratio(A surrogate for knowing whether mkt is over or under valued) currently stands at 1:22. For last 20 years its been 1:15. Implying if the credit gets as stringent as it was 10 years ago and if there is no oversupply, then perhaps house prices would have to come down by another 25% before we hit the bottom. Given the oversupply and fears of recession, it might go even lower before it stabilizes.

Am I a pessimist, soothsayer or what?

Greenspan is Culpable for this mess

I've been reading about the housing bubble since 2004 on fool.com. They knew it was coming but no one knew when. Greenspan knew about it but dismissed it as mere froth 2005.

I think the reason he chose to overlook it instead of dealing with it was because he wanted US to come out of the recession that started in 2000-2001. People were afraid that like Japan, US will also face a long recession. Housing bubble delivered US out of the recession in a much shorter time.

This time however, even that hope is gone. There is no froth left anywhere in any sector. The winter is going to be long and harsh. Remember, the US "lost decade" started in 2007...

A Whacko Idea on building employable skills.

I think, we should conduct IQ tests for ppl, mostly for illiterates and uneducated. If someone scores above the baseline, govt trains them in manufacturing or some other useful skill and also educates them for free. Mostly in basic reading and writing so that these ppl can carry out their work and life responsibilities better.

Create an institution. That will go around, conduct tests and recruit these people. It will train them and keep them on their payrolls while lending them out to industry. It will also pay part of the money they get as unemployment insurance while allowing industry to hire and fire at will. Or there could be two such agencies. One for training and other for employment. It would need initial funding but in the long run, we have to find a way make it sustainable.

I think its a whacko idea, none the less, it might get us better trained for the future and give the young but illiterate people hope.

Secular India?

This is bad enough to catch the fancy of the west, including the pope. Hindus and Christians. The only way mass hatred / hysteria is channeled is through religious bigotism, regionalism (Maharashtrians vs the North) and Castism(Rajasthan). With growing economy, extremism is also on the rise.

Is it a way the have nots are venting their anger? Is it coming from those who feel untouched by economic boom?

Whats the solution? We know we have to have inclusive growth. We understand that better than most other nations. I feel there are enough opportunities around us, but only for the educated and well trained. Is there a way to train ppl to be economically useful?

World is going to be poorer

I was reading this post from Ny times. Experts may say that the world will be fine once the money starts flowing again. I am not convinced. I think at the end of it all, world will be a poorer place than it was till lets say mid 2007, for a long time. For how long? At least 5 years. It could be more.

Yes, wealth or at least illusion of it can be created by borrowing and overextending oneself. But without creating underlying wealth to support it it can't go on for ever. When eventually the bubble bursts, a lot of this wealth will disappear. This will show up in reduced prices for houses and reduced values of 401K for all Americans.

This will impact rest of the world too. If US can't afford the accesses any more, all the asian economies that make a living out of selling to the Americans will also be poorer.

The good thing about this crises or the bad thing, depending on how you see it, is that it will bring down the wealth of the over leveraged part of the world (that is most of US and first world). But there is an irony there. Wealth is always relative. This means that everyone is poorer, people may not be as poor as they think they might be. Let me explain, when all people earn less, the house rents and mortgages will also be smaller. Its not to say that their disposable income in terms of its buying power will remain the same. It will not. It will diminish. But it might not be as bad people think when compared to current price levels.

The asians that did not invest in this crises will be relatively richer.

I think, India will turn out on the winning side of this. Its exposure to sub-prime crisis is minimal and its not a export driven economy. All that will help. Though India is also facing liquidity crisis, I think its temporary. Its caused by outflow of hot capital as FIIs needed to cover their positions in their county or origin. It can be addressed by relaxing CRR and reducing rate. What will also help is that given all this slowdown, oil may remain subdued for a few years to come. If India does not get drunk on low oil prices, it would not have to spend all foreign money to buy it. Over all, its good for India's standing in the world. This event will narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.

GM and Ford in Dire straits

Read this article and then this one.

The US Flagship Auto Makers are on their death beds. A company like GM and Ford were the pride of US for decades till Japanese started making inroads in the 80's and irrespective of what Lee Iaccoca might have said in his book about Ford and then Chrysler its now evident that the slide that started then is now reaching its culmination. US Auto companies face annihilation. All 3 of them GM, Ford and Chrysler and even though there might be talks of merger between GM and Chrysler, I feel their time has run out.

Unless the US govt bails them out they are going to go under by this time next year.

Unconscious Discrimination

A Good article in NY Times on Unconscious Discrimination made me think about the discrimination against Muslims in India. During my short stay here in US I've come to believe that the Muslims in India have the same status as Blacks in the US.

However open minded we call ourselves, we are in some way uneasy in our dealings with our Muslim countrymen. When Shabana Azmi expressed her views on moderate muslims, a lot of people came up with examples with how our president was a Muslim and so on and so forth, but the truth is that since 1992, we are living in an increasingly polarized society.

1992 brought the Hindu-Muslim divide to even the most moderate citizens. That singular event has created a mistrust that has only grown with time. In many cities, Educated muslims have sold their properties in otherwise Hindu dominated areas and have moved to predominantly Muslim areas. Ghettos have come up in all major cities.

A relative of mine has done PHD on the biases against muslim traders and she gives examples of how the municipal corp of Mumbai neglects Muslim areas. The basic cleanliness and hygiene is missing.

Its true that given everything else is identical, if we were to choose between a Muslim and a non Muslim candidate we would lean towards non-muslim. Its a fact of life and we are all guilty of it.

That the builders discriminate against muslims is a known fact. There are Muslim only buildings and then there are non-muslim buildings. Any other religion is fine, christians, parsi, sikh all are welcome. North Indians and south indians and jains and bengalis are welcome. Muslims are not.

My theory is that the spate of violence recently is in news is an aftermath of 1992 and Godhara. Unless we make attempts to address the deep psychological divide between Muslims and the rest, there will be no peace in India.

Crisis in the US, Impact on the world financial systems

As US Congress debates over $700 billion bailout and citizens cry foul over what they see as govt sponsored robbery, the world is grappling with the ripple effects of the liquidity crisis.



Trading in Russia got suspended for 2 days until govt pumped in $120 billion into the system. RBI in India is pumping Rs 84,000 Crore(~ $20 billion) into financial system.



US is a special country. When they screw up its not just them who gets impacted. It impacts the entire world. Till about last month RBI was trying to suck liquidity out of the system to contain inflation, now its pumping in money to ease lack of liquidity issues. Nothing has changed with Indian financial system or economy except that investors from US have exited. RBI had to sell them dollars and so in turn it has collected thousands of crore of Rupees (which have been sucked out of the system). In fact inadvertantly RBI may have made some cool profit in the process. It must have accumulated these dollars earlier this year by paying @Rs40 and are now selling these dollars to perhaps the same investors @Rs45. In coming days they might even reduce the CRR to inject more liquidity in the system.



It just goes on to show how US impacts the world. I just hope US congress sorts it out quickly without getting sentimental about morals and conscience. Let history and coming generations debate this in their economics masters curriculum.

House Hunting in DC

The matter apparently resolved itself on Sat. I've been given go ahead to join work. Indian s/w services companies perhaps have one of the worst employee policies in US. I wish there was some bench mark available that would bring out the contrast between a US based company's HR policies and compare them with India based companies operating in US.

Coming to the topic. Went house hunting today. DC area is about as expensive as Bay area when it comes to rentals. Choose a house. Looked like a steal. Closed the deal. Came back to check what its residents say about it on the net. Got the gory details of the catch(gotcha). Trying to wriggle out of the deal. Lets wait and see the damages.

Holed up in DC

Its been a week and we are holed up in DC without the knowledge of what future may bring. Paid a visit to White House with my family. Finally rented a car so that I could be mobile. Planning to visit a ranch today. I'm told there would be pony rides et all. My daughter has not ridden a horse before. I hope she likes it. Weather is a hide and seek. Its been wet and darb through the week. Friday was a better.

Perspective

We were sitting at Golden Bierch sipping beer when we were informed about the loss. One of our collegue's father had passed away in his sleep. Needless to say we rushed to his place. About half a dozen guys frantically placed calls to find the fastest route to B'lore. Alas, there is no way he can reach home before 9-May. We finally took him to airport and put him on Cathey Pac flight.

In all of this somewhere, I find myself shaken up. Sitting so far away from my parents there is absolutely nothing that I can do should they face any emergency. Makes me feel helpless and vulnarable and guilty of Green Greed.