Monday, July 13, 2009

Headed for a Jobless Recovery

The size of the Balance Sheets for US banks and companies is shrinking. Companies are fighting to stay profitable in this challenging environment. And they will succeed, I'm sure of that fact. Challenge is how to grow the company. No one is focusing on it and I do not think it would be on their radar for some time. As a result, companies will turn around. Leaner, meaner(literally) and profitable. If the companies fire enough people, shut down enough plants and cut enough costs and yet survive they will eventually be profitable, albeit with a smaller revenue base. However, the people that were spitted out with pink slips will not be assimilated back in the system anytime soon. Net, Net this will be a jobless recovery and it may take a decade or more to reach full employment of 4-5%.

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