Friday, June 26, 2009

Illusion of Progress

Level A is a constant.

In 2003 joined my present company. I reported to X who reported to A. I was a PL. In 2004 I got promoted to PM. At the same time a layer was created between X and A. So Me->X->Y->A. In 2005 I started reporting to Y. So Me->Y->A. In 2006 I got promoted to AGM and shipped to US. Here once again reporting became, Me->X->Y->A. In 2008 I got yet another promotion to become a Delivery Manager and my reporting became Me->Y->A. In 2009 Y introduced another layer and currently my reporting is Me->Z->Y->A. That is after 6 years in the company and 3 promotions.

I call this illusion of progress. Its quite Dilbert like.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Fed is Printing money. Want Some?

Over the last 3 months, BSE has almost doubled. How much of that is to do with the fundamentals? I think very little. The Exports in Apr were down 33%. Satyam just showed the back door to 10000 employees. Why are markets celebrating? Is it because of new found confidence in the congress govt? No, I think its because of increased money supply from the US. Here is the theory. Ben decides to pump prime the economy by printing money. But the money does not stay in US alone. It leaks out of it. See how porous the US borders are (Mexicans are leaking in and $ is leaking out). Once out that money finds its way to India and other emerging markets.

Last fall, decline in Indian mkt was sharp largely because of flight of capital from India to US / Europe. The tide has since turned and what we are seeing that the swell of the tide is equally unrelated to fundamentals.

If this money had stayed in the US it would have a multiplier effect. But as its leaked out, that multiplier effect is lost causing Ben Bhaiya to print even more money. If the money does not find its way to India, it finds its way into the speculative Oil market. The US oil consumption is down to 2000 levels and yet the oil prices are going up.

I used to think that India should deregulate the gas prices to let them find their own level. However, given that the speculators can skew the market on their whim and how volatile they have made the oil market, I have started to wonder if India is right in regulating the gas prices. The price stability is far more preferable compared to wild swings.