Pulse Pressure

I personally have borderline hypertension, but not very concerning (per doctor). When trying the Digital BP instrument I got from the US, I checked my own BP. As one would expect the systolic pressure came to around 130. The diastolic was well within the normal range. It was around 72. As a layman I would have just left it there. I however, decided to research it over the internet. What I found, freaked me out. Its called Pulse Pressure. Basically its Systolic pressure - Diastolic pressure. For normal people its around 40. For me it was 60. So what? It seems some research shows that high pulse pressure increases stroke risk. 20% more risk for every 10 points beyond 40. Ouch!

Since I stopped running this spring, I am worried about my weight gain. I usually ran 25 KMs a week burning about 2500 cal. As I stopped running, I was fearing the worst. I was researching the net one day when I read about Green Tea and its benefits. It helps in burning fat and reducing weight. One of the several benefits was reducing heart problems. Its Godsent. I've started taking it regularly despite its taste. Its helped me keep my weight in check. I haven't gained a single pound in the last month despite stopping running. Yesterday, I measured my BP and was surprised to see my pulse pressure coming down to ~50.

This habit is for keeps. Green Tea. 1 liter of it every day. Served chilled in a bottle. Its worked wonders.

Android vs Apple

I was using Google Nexus for more than a year till one day(about 2 weeks back) I threw it in a fit of rage and broke something important enough for it to stop working.

I'm not getting into rationalizing what I did. The next day, I went and bought an iPhone 4 for 33K from Alpha.

Ever since, I've been tempted to write about how the two compare. So here goes.

Firstly, Android Nexus N is the best phone amongst Andriod phones because google updates it to the latest version of Andriod automatically. For other phones such as Motorola, HTC, Samgsung the ugrades are slow or practically non-existent. I personally was running 2.3.

With Maps and Wi-Fi Hotspot feature in iOS3. The feature gap with Android has really narrowed. The only big thing out of reach is Flash support. Ego goes beyond reason and technology. This one feature is hostage to Apple's bloated ego.


Usability in general
Andriod has too many option buttons to it. The back button, home button, search, right click kind. It can be a little overwhelming for a new person. Also, hepatic control of Nexus N didn't quite work out for my wife. I was kind of okay with it. My wife hated my phone.

My daughter never played with my Android. She loves my iPhone and iTouch. Simplicity is the key and iPhone scores big over Android.

Options which kick in if I press and hold the item offer more options but also need higher user sophistication. I liked some of these features in Android. iPhone keeps it simple. Android has wider options that iPhone.


Office Work
The biggest draw for me came from MS exchange sync. With my Android, I could never sync up my Calendar with my Office mail (MS exchange) even after the latest version upgrade where all I had to do is click a checkbox to sync my calendar. I tried loading Google Calendar tool and installing on my office laptop. Its a clumsy way of doing things and I really do not have permission to install apps on my office laptop. With iPhone it works like a charm. I'm really pleased with this feature.

The pasted excel tables emails get completely distorted in Android. iPhone retains the formatting.

Grouping the conversations is supposed to be a Google thing. Ironically I have that feature in iPhone and is missing in Android (for my office mails).

The time it takes to load the mail content after I click on it is pathetically slow in Android. Its zipping fast in iPhone.

Media Player
One thing I liked about Android is that I could choose to build the playlist on the fly by keep adding to the currently playing list. iPhone does not have it.

One feature about iOS 4.3 I love is that I can play media including video stored on my local network on my iphone. Yesterday I watched a good part of Charlie Wilson's War on my iPhone streaming from my network drive. It was cool.

Gadgets controls such as media player were on my home screen on Android. Not so on iPhone.

Phone Quality
The iPhone Camera is better than Android.
The voice quality of iPhone is better.
The voice levels of iPhone is better.
Speaker phone of iPhone is better.
Battery life is the same.

Network
Switching to Wi-Fi was always a problem with my nexus one. It would keep me on my mobile Edge network even when I was at home. To move it to Wi-Fi, I had to go to settings and Wi-Fi. Not that I had to choose the network, but I needed to go navigate to the screen before my Nexus one realized it had a Wi-Fi available and then it would switch to it.

My edge network would disappear a couple of time a day at office. I had to go to Airplane mode and come back to get my Edge back.

iPhone does not have either of these problems. Good.

My earphone socket on the Andriod had started giving me trouble some time back(after about a year of use). I'll know about iPhone as I use it.

Overall, I'm happy I made the switch. For me iPhone rules.

Run!

Having completed 1 year of running, I presented myself a bright Red Nike jersey. It had "Run" printed on it. I liked it for its simplicity. No big words, no fancy / witty captions. Means exactly what it reads.

I had fancied running Half Marathon in less than 2 hours. It was not an unrealistic dream. It was well calibrated. Based of my past performance and had "Realistic" stamped all over it. I even came close to achieving it back in Feb.

Thane Marathon is a little tougher than Mumbai Stan Chart as it traverses Ghodbunder Road which is a little hilly in parts. I did 1min 20secs over 2 hours, which translates to about ~220 meters in a 21 KM race. It was my first formal Half Marathon run and best time for the distance. In the past 2 (informal / practice) attempts, I had clocked 9 min and 12 min over.

With ACL injury, running another half marathon seems a tall order. The doc has said no to running. MRI wasn't very positive. Hence, I have stopped running completely. I think I'll start again after the monsoons. I'll also apply for the next Mumbai Marathon. Whether I'm able to run, is just a Rs.600 question (participation fee).

Run Forrest Run

I'm tense and scared. I've done MRI on my right knee and will be consulting the doctor tomorrow. I hope the doctor will find some way to keep me going on the tread mill.

I've been a decent athlete but never really been a runner. The farthest I had ever run was in 1997. It was probably around 4 kms and I almost died getting back home. I re-discovered running in the winter of 2009.

Trying to lose weight, I found running possibly the most effective way of keeping healthy. 3 months into running, I got my cholesterol numbers under control, in 6 months, I stripped 2" off my waist.

In Jan-2010, my boss visited the US. Sameer is a fit man. He is about 7 years my senior and pretty energetic. He told me about his maiden half marathon experience and I started wondering if I could ever run 13 miles.

The day he left, I started taking running seriously. Winter of 2010 was one of the harshest winters in DC with record snowfall. As I could not go out, I took Washington gym membership and started running on treadmill. I still remember the first time I ran 6 miles in an hour. It was early march and it was late night (10:00 pm) I finished running. I was the only one there. I had raised my hands like I was crossing the ribbon at the end of the race.

By early April, I was doing 10 mile run once a week. And finally on the day I turned 37, I ran my first half marathon. It was on the treadmill, and I clocked, 02:09. It was tiring, but it felt good.

After I returned to Mumbai I took up membership at the local gym. I always ran on the treadmill. At office, I met a few enthusiasts, and we started comparing notes. By August, I was seriously practicing for Mumbai Marathon. Unfortunately, last year was the first time they introduced qualifying time and selection lottery. As I had never run a Marathon before, my name was put through the lottery and rejected. I received the check for Rs. 570 with a regret letter couple of weeks before the race. It broke my heart. I decided to run my own half marathon on the eastern express highway. It was the first time I ran the distance on the road. Let me just say it was quite different from running on a tread mill in the cosy confines of a gym.

I researched the net and found out another marathon was being planned in Thane on 27-Feb. I jumped on the opportunity and got myself registered. I had now started practicing on the road. During one of these practice runs, I felt pain in my right knee. The pain persisted for a day and then went away.

I finally ran the Half Marathon on the D-day clocking 02:01. I thought it was okay for a almost 38 yr first timer. The next day however, I could not walk. My knee hurt so much, I could not bend it.

From then on, my knee would hurt every I'd run and the next day and then it would be okay. As time progressed, it became worse, I stopped running on the road and went back to the treadmill. But the hurt kept worsening. I reduced the distance from 16kms to 10 to 8 to 5.

Then last week I finally decided to visit a doctor. He has asked to just stop running completely and ordered xray and MRI to check damage to bone / cartilage. He will review my case tomorrow.

Mohit Chauhan

I remember the days in B-School hostel, we'd get the guitar and start practicing Scorpions, Pink Floyd chords when I first heard of Silk Route. Dooba Dooba made them famous. I liked the song in an instant. Thats how it works most times. You hear a new song and your mind makes decides in about 30 secs whether it likes the song or not. I loved the song but never heard another good song from Silk Route. Later the group fell by the way-side. When digital mp3 players came, I downloaded the song and it became part of my collection.

Then in 2009 I was visiting India and we were returning from Kashet when I heard Masakali. Loved it in less than 10 secs. Then came doorian and I became curious about the singer. Isn't it great that even as we grow older and set in our ways we can still be excited about new songs and new singers.

Over the last few years Mohit Chauhan has sung several good songs. I love his laid back style, the way his voice modulates. He has no formal training in Music(like Kishore Kumar) and yet he continues to build his repertoire. My favorites include
- Ye Doorian
- Masakali
- Abhi Kutch Dinon Se (reminds me of Dooba Dooba)
- Man Lafanga
- Tujhe Bhula Diya
- Tum se hi
- Pi Loon

Hope in coming years he keeps adding to this list. Know what, part of the credit is Pritam's. I like Pritam's music.

A Random Thought

Someone dear to me lost his mother last week. It has shaken him up a bit and its but natural. I spoke with him yesterday and he started talking of spirituality. Not my cup. However, it intrigued me. I haven't read any scriptures. Not true. I tried Gita a few years back when my daughter was born but did not find it very engaging and I haven't thought about it since. Until now.

Anyhow, here is the thought. Most of the events around us are triggered by factors we have no influence over. Be it 8.9 tremor off Japan coast or 1984 Bhopal Gas Leak or the traffic jam during rush hour. As these are governed by nature or unintended consequence of human behavior, to me these are acts of God. And while I did not trigger them, I still need to respond to them as they affect me.

Here comes causality. As I understand my reactions are a combination of my nature and nurture / conditioning. Research shows, a man is mostly governed by his intrinsic nature. To me intrinsic nature is also an act of God as its mostly chance, largely random. Nurture is the only partially controllable variable. Even here, social environment, peer group etc.(external) have fair amount of influence compared to parental nurture(controllable).

So, with so much up to God / Chance, the responses to these externalities should also be random. Does everyone inherently have the same power to tune one's response to these happenings(nature once again)? If not, then has God has played dice with each of us and indeed some of us are blessed, while others are not and guess what, its random.

An then, if this were true, how do you explain the contrast in human behavior in the aftermath of Katerina and Japan Tsunami? Both were acts of God and yet in one place there was widespread looting while in another, there was none.

Losing it!

It all started in September of 2009. My family was visiting me in Virginia and my wife made some unkind remarks about my exploding waistline. I was pushing 200 pounds and it was showing up everywhere. The tell tale buckle marks on the leather belt, the triple chin, you name it... The blood report confirmed the indulgent lifestyle, with soaring cholesterol and triglycerides.
After they had left, I tried taking a shot at redemption through exercise. For the first time in about a year of living there, I ventured into our community Gym. It had 3 treadmills and 2 ellipticals. I climbed atop one of the treadmills and was pretty impressed with the results. I did about 4 miles in 30 minutes. I went around boasting about it to others in my office till finally another guy living in the same complex finally burst my bubble. It seems all the 3 treadmills were seriously mis-calibrated giving fools a false high. I decided to validate the theory. I got a free one day pass to a near by Washington fitness center and tried repeating the magic. To my embarrassment, I hardly completed about 0.5 miles @8 miles an hour before I had to get off the treadmill panting.

I finally switched over to ellipticals and found them most useful for burning calories. They don't stress your knees and yet they could be as effective (or more in some cases) as the treadmills.

I also started to read up about losing weight, probably for the first time in my life. It seems one needs to burn 3500kcal to lose 1 pound. Typically if you exercise hard like a regular you could burn about 700-800 kcal in an hour. It meant if I did not change my diet, I would have to exercise about 5 days a week to lose a pound. And so in another first, I started looking out of healthier eating options. I found a great app, loseit on iphone and I started keeping track of what I ate and how much I exercised. Loseit is a great app, and I'd recommend it to anyone trying to lose weight. Unfortunately, it does not have good data on Indian food. So I had to research the net to find the cal value of butter chicken, chole and some and add them to the list.

The results started showing in about 6 weeks. Loseit kept count of cal deficit and with minor adjustments, I calibrated it to weighing scale at home. By the time I returned to Mumbai, in May-10, I had lost more than 25 pounds and 2 inches off my waist.

For the first time since leaving grad school(10 yrs), I could fit into 32" trousers. It felt great. I actually threw away all my 34" trousers with a commitment to self that I'll stay within 32" waistline.

Its been almost a year since my return and I have to admit that the battle of "bulge" is never won. I have to keep an eye on my food as every now and then I binge and then it shows up on the weighing scale. So far, I've been able to keep my weight and my promise to self, but then I fight this battle every day.

End of the Road for Ikon

My first car happened to be Ford Ikon. Ikon had it good for a few years after launch, especially around 2003-2004. It was sporty, inexpensive and fun to drive. It had a horrible mileage though. But then Ford never really worked on modernizing the car. And finally here is the Obituary for iconic Ikon. RIP my loved one.

Break Ke Baad...

Well I did take a break. More than a year off blogger. A few things have changed around me. I'm back in Mumbai with my family. That happened about 10 months ago :). Other than that, I've lost weight and hair from a year ago. Proud of the first and wary of the latter.
We have done up our house. I like the way it turned out.
Work life is long and punishing especially the travel.
Don't have to do daily household chores anymore. Loving it.
Hope to write more often.

India's gift to the US

Obama seems to be intimidated by India and its ability to produce scientists and engineers. What he does not know yet is that hundreds of thousands of engineers and scientists are being tutored in Indian schools, paid for by their parents who will start coming to US in the next 15 years to bolster their Intellectual Pool.

There is a mania amongst Indians IT professionals to have their kids born in the US so that they can be US citizens. All these H1-B and L1 engineers may not get GC and may return to India after a few years in the US. However, they all return with toddlers who are US citizens. These kids are given best possible education in India and will be packed off to US as soon as they complete college.

This new breed of US citizens being brought up in India will fill the deficit of engineers and doctors in the US. It could get any better. These kids do not live off the public education system, do not use up tax dollars while growing up. They come back as fully developed and productive members of the work force.

This is kind of surreal. But unknowingly US is safeguarding its future by providing citizenship to all born in the country.

Food Inflation hits 19.95%

Is it good news or Bad news? Its bad news for all the consumers but may not be that bad for the producers. I think the biggest beneficiaries of the food inflation are the farmers. With eChaupal and the modern communication (cell phones), they can find out the prevailing rates for various produces across markets (local and global). This gives them an opportunity to negotiate the rates better. The biggest losers though are the urban people. They are at the mercy of wholesalers. From a purely political pov, it may not have the severe backlash in an agrarian society such as India. If there are severe side supply side constraints, then perhaps the govt can allow import of vegies and pulses. We have enough Foreign Currency reserves to cushion the imports.

Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP)

I read about CK Prahalad's vision for India to build 500 new cities to accommodate migrating population on rediff. I could not agree more. In fact I've been thinking about it for some years now. Thats what we need to do. Build cities from scratch. Perhaps all district centers should be planned to accommodate upto 1 million people. That way we can move rural people to city centers and move away from agrarian society to manufacturing based society.

This led me to drive down to the local library and bring back the book Profits at The Bottom of the Pyramid.

I'm yet to start the book but I'm pretty excited about it. Long ago when I was doing my MBA, I did my summer project in the wilderness of MP (Dhar and Obedullahgunj) that's where I first formed the thought of the concept. To have sustainable progress, it has to be profitable rather than charitable.

Its good to know that someone like C K Prahalad thinks the same.

Can't wait to start the book.

Lets Build Some Cities

I read about CK Prahalad's vision for India to build 500 new cities to accommodate migrating population on rediff. I could not agree more. In fact I've been thinking about it for some years now. Thats what we need to do. Build cities from scratch. Perhaps all district centers should be planned to accommodate upto 1 million people. That way we can move rural people to city centers and move away from agrarian society to manufacturing based society.

Lage Raho IRCTC

I read this article in Business Standard today. This is awesome news. India is moving to internet slowly but surely. I've been a regular customer since 2003. Sometime in 2005, I got a mail from them thanking its users, stating they hit 100,000 tickets a month. I smirked, ha! 100,000 a month, about 3300 a day. India is a loser on internet when compared to other countries. We will take a long time to get there blah blah. Just 4 years from then I now read people reserving 300,000 tickets a day. This is phenomenal. This to me is harbinger. India has arrived to internet. If you build it, they will come and click.

Really happy today to read this article. I'd long been a skeptic. Now I'm a convert.

Housing Price to Rent Ratio

Historically the price to annual rent ratio in the US was around 16-18 in most places, rarely going above 20 except in places like California. When I compare that to India, I see the ratios in excess of 30 in most places.

This is really high compared to US. In US the interest rates are around 4-8% vs 10% in India. The tenure of loan in US is about 30 years while in India its 20. In US the entire interest amount is tax deductible while in India its only upto 1,50,000. In us there are no tax deductions on rent while in India we do. In India, the rent control acts etc are so heavily in favor of the tenants that owners prefer keeping the house empty. This reduces the supply of rentable property. All of these factors point to a lower price-to-rent ratio. But its not.

In my view the properties in India are far overpriced than in US. Given the above one would expect the ratio to be 10. I do not see prices correcting that much. I think its not worth investing in a housing property unless you see remarkable growth in real estate value of the house. Housing as investment is really not worth it. One should buy a house only to live in it.

Indian IT Exports

About 4 years ago I read a post in rediff about a Mckenzie report that projected India to achieve IT exports of $62 billion by 2008. It sounded phony and I mentioned so at that time in my blog. Today I read this article in TOI stating India achieved $50 billion in IT exports in 2008. Falling short by 20%. I really would like to know how these projections are made. I understand the need to make these projections, so that the CEOs and IT pundits and drop these numbers to project their own interests, but seriously, I do not think there is much thought behind these models.

Partial Capital Account Convertability

I've read all but last 30 pages of the Paul Krugman's book. This has been an enlightening book on economics. I refrain from hyperbole because I read so little, its tough to compare with other books.

This has also been a journey of discovery. I have come to appreciate India's stand on partial capital account convertability. Its been demonstrated time and again, how assets bubbles are created through foreign investments and how a country could face financial crisis owing to no fault of theirs but only because of speculators, sentiment and lack of depth of their own financial markets.

I have now started believing that unless a country has enough depth in its own financial markets, it should not let free inflow and outflow of capital. The sheer volume and speed of the flow and cause bubbles or busts (depending on which way the flow goes).

The reason India remained relatively unaffected by Asian crisis, and to some extent US meltdown is because of these curbs, regulations and checks. I now see the wisdom of it. A country needs to manage its transition to prosperity on its own terms. India is doing it, and so is China. Chinese Yuan used to quote @8.25 in early 2005 and around the time I visited Shanghai. Today its quoting @6.8. Its about 16% gain in 4 years. Its gradual, managed and thats how it should be done.

Corollary to Previous Post

US stock mkt has gone up for the last 7 sessions. This is indeed good news for the investors. My view is that this is largely due to increased liquidity. Another proof of increased liquidity is emerging markets. As the financial crisis threatened the US economy, the investors sold their holdings across the world and flocked back to the US. Now that the monetary policy is easing, the money is flowing back to the emerging economies.

In principle, US is a leaky economy, i.e. if there is too much liquidity and PE is high, the money will exit US shores and go to rest of the world in search of better returns. In the 60s,70s and 80s, the world was relatively closed. But with globalization, capital is flowing to developing economies in search of above average returns.

It is my view that US mkt is saturated and therefore there will not be too much upside to stocks in the US. In the coming years, the spending in US will be fueled by growth of investments outside of US. Just like the housing and stock bubbles, US money will now stoke bubbles in emerging economies and fuel internal consumption backed by gains in these economies.

The interest rates in the US will remain depressed for years to come as these investments will bear fruits only some time down the road.

The same happened in Japan in the 90's when interest rates were depressed to 0 and capital was available cheap. The east asian economies swelled due to capital inflows from Japan. Investors could borrow cheap from Japan and then lead at higher rates in countries like Thailand, Korea, Mylasia etc. Only this time the amount of money will be bigger and will create bubbles in developing countries across the world.

The good news is that Indian stock market will receive a lot of money from US investors, at least in the short run.

Anatomy of a Crisis

I'm reading "The Return of Depression Economics" by Paul Krugman. A very enlightening book for a coffee table economist like me. He traverses the history of meltdowns across the world from Latin America to South East Asia. A very interesting journey indeed. This journey triggered a thought in my mind. If its brought out later in the book, I'm not aware. Its not there in the first 100 pages and given my ageing memory I thought it best to write it down before I forget it. So here goes.

Size of Economies
All these crisis economies (Mexico, Argentina, Thailand) etc. are essentially small, unlike US or Japan. The businesses within the country do not have much power to move the indexes too much for their lack of resources. The outside players such as US and Europe pump in money or pull it out as they feel. Though the money they pump in or pull out is small change to these countries, they are substantial sum when compared to size of these economies.

I've read somewhere that speculators add liquidity and depth to the market. In financial markets of these countries when sentiments change, the first world speculators collectively move to one end of the spectrum (buy or sell), lets say 10 funds. Even if there are 100 other operators within the country that wanted to buy at lets say 10% less than current price, they can't buy all the load thats coming their way. This reduces the prices beyond their natural bottom(bottom it would have settled if external and internal operators had about equal buying powers).

The sheer size of their economies makes these countries more susceptible to crisis. That's how I could explain the Contagion effect.

Currencies
Another point. When these countries face crisis, the currencies get hammered because the pulls out the money. However, when a Crisis hits the biggies, the currencies appreciate. For example, before the 2008 crisis hit US, Rupee was trading at 43 per dollar. The moment Crisis hit us in September, rupee dropped to 50 and beyond, more than 15%. India is not much of an export driven economy compared to lets say South Korea(25% of GDP vs 40% of GDP. They have comparable GDPs). I also checked Australian Dollar vs USD The AUD dropped from 1.2 in Sep-08 to 1.5 Dec-08. Why did this happen?

America and Europe have huge hordes of money. Though most of that money is invested in US and Europe, a significant part is also invested in other parts of the world. So when a credit crisis happened in the US, all this money across the world flooded in to the rescue bolstering liquidity cushioning the fall. Same with Yen. The Japanese had the 12% contraction in GDP (Q4 2008) vs 6% in US. Their currency actually appreciated against the USD (112 in the end of 2007 vs 90 at the end of 2008).

In effect, the anatomy of crisis in Big and Rich countries is a little different. They are better protected against the crisis just because they could call upon investments in other countries to cushion the blow.

Punishment to a small country for their economic sins is far harsher compared to the rich. Didn't I just prove the social aspect of crime and punishment in economic terms. Ha!

Headed for a Jobless Recovery

The size of the Balance Sheets for US banks and companies is shrinking. Companies are fighting to stay profitable in this challenging environment. And they will succeed, I'm sure of that fact. Challenge is how to grow the company. No one is focusing on it and I do not think it would be on their radar for some time. As a result, companies will turn around. Leaner, meaner(literally) and profitable. If the companies fire enough people, shut down enough plants and cut enough costs and yet survive they will eventually be profitable, albeit with a smaller revenue base. However, the people that were spitted out with pink slips will not be assimilated back in the system anytime soon. Net, Net this will be a jobless recovery and it may take a decade or more to reach full employment of 4-5%.