Monday, April 17, 2006

HDFC Bank Q4 Profits Rise By 30%

Aditya Puri is a respected man in the Indian Banking Industry. Yet I cant but get piqued by his bank's 30% YOY growth
I wonder if its not a case of window dressing results to meet a preset target. I may be completely wrong on this one. In fact it may be entirely possible for any business entity to grow by a predetermined percentage quarter after quarter, year after year. But it sure sounds eerie to me.

Lets just take an example. I start off a business. Over a period of a year I produce some financial numbers while I added new branches and new customers. I join the quarterly dots and come about with a trajectory. The next year and the year after, is it possible to chart exactly the same trajectory by joining dots 30% above previous year dots while performing activities that may be different from what I was doing a year ago. Eerie.....

I'm sure, over long terms the numbers will all match out i.e. maybe over a 5 year period the CAGR may actually come out to be 30%. To my untrained eye it surely seems to be financial wizardry... Maybe if ever an investigation is carried out, many skeletons may come rolling out out the cup-board.

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