Wednesday, October 22, 2008

HDFC Bank Market Cap Overtakes ICICI Bank

This is incredible. Just goes on to show that Banking is fundamentally a conservative business. If you do not run it that way, you are likely get into trouble sooner or later. Being bigger, more aggressive etc. has come to naught as HDFC bank whizzes by. FYI, I checked these numbers based on closing price of stocks on 22-Oct-08.

I have known a few ex ICICI guys and they pride themselves in being aggressive and mkt share. Thats what has driven them. Mkt share. That obviously has led to placing bad bets. All of these problems with indiscriminate lending and poor credit control is coming back to haunt them now. I think they got lucky last year when they raised money from the market at around Rs. 980. Now the share price is trading less than Rs. 400.

A good lesson on Banking. Be Conservative.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

VP Ansari's Speech at AMU

I read this article in Indian Express and was much moved. At a time of partisan and communal politics, this kind of speech is like a breath of fresh air. I completely agree to this thoughts. Education and Equity. Muslim integration with the main stream will hinge on how the new generation embraces education and if requires asserts itself for equitable treatment.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Housing Market Rebound

Housing market is nowhere near its bottom, per this report. The 1 year rent to price ratio(A surrogate for knowing whether mkt is over or under valued) currently stands at 1:22. For last 20 years its been 1:15. Implying if the credit gets as stringent as it was 10 years ago and if there is no oversupply, then perhaps house prices would have to come down by another 25% before we hit the bottom. Given the oversupply and fears of recession, it might go even lower before it stabilizes.

Am I a pessimist, soothsayer or what?

Greenspan is Culpable for this mess

I've been reading about the housing bubble since 2004 on fool.com. They knew it was coming but no one knew when. Greenspan knew about it but dismissed it as mere froth 2005.

I think the reason he chose to overlook it instead of dealing with it was because he wanted US to come out of the recession that started in 2000-2001. People were afraid that like Japan, US will also face a long recession. Housing bubble delivered US out of the recession in a much shorter time.

This time however, even that hope is gone. There is no froth left anywhere in any sector. The winter is going to be long and harsh. Remember, the US "lost decade" started in 2007...

Monday, October 13, 2008

A Whacko Idea on building employable skills.

I think, we should conduct IQ tests for ppl, mostly for illiterates and uneducated. If someone scores above the baseline, govt trains them in manufacturing or some other useful skill and also educates them for free. Mostly in basic reading and writing so that these ppl can carry out their work and life responsibilities better.

Create an institution. That will go around, conduct tests and recruit these people. It will train them and keep them on their payrolls while lending them out to industry. It will also pay part of the money they get as unemployment insurance while allowing industry to hire and fire at will. Or there could be two such agencies. One for training and other for employment. It would need initial funding but in the long run, we have to find a way make it sustainable.

I think its a whacko idea, none the less, it might get us better trained for the future and give the young but illiterate people hope.

Secular India?

This is bad enough to catch the fancy of the west, including the pope. Hindus and Christians. The only way mass hatred / hysteria is channeled is through religious bigotism, regionalism (Maharashtrians vs the North) and Castism(Rajasthan). With growing economy, extremism is also on the rise.

Is it a way the have nots are venting their anger? Is it coming from those who feel untouched by economic boom?

Whats the solution? We know we have to have inclusive growth. We understand that better than most other nations. I feel there are enough opportunities around us, but only for the educated and well trained. Is there a way to train ppl to be economically useful?

Sunday, October 12, 2008

World is going to be poorer

I was reading this post from Ny times. Experts may say that the world will be fine once the money starts flowing again. I am not convinced. I think at the end of it all, world will be a poorer place than it was till lets say mid 2007, for a long time. For how long? At least 5 years. It could be more.

Yes, wealth or at least illusion of it can be created by borrowing and overextending oneself. But without creating underlying wealth to support it it can't go on for ever. When eventually the bubble bursts, a lot of this wealth will disappear. This will show up in reduced prices for houses and reduced values of 401K for all Americans.

This will impact rest of the world too. If US can't afford the accesses any more, all the asian economies that make a living out of selling to the Americans will also be poorer.

The good thing about this crises or the bad thing, depending on how you see it, is that it will bring down the wealth of the over leveraged part of the world (that is most of US and first world). But there is an irony there. Wealth is always relative. This means that everyone is poorer, people may not be as poor as they think they might be. Let me explain, when all people earn less, the house rents and mortgages will also be smaller. Its not to say that their disposable income in terms of its buying power will remain the same. It will not. It will diminish. But it might not be as bad people think when compared to current price levels.

The asians that did not invest in this crises will be relatively richer.

I think, India will turn out on the winning side of this. Its exposure to sub-prime crisis is minimal and its not a export driven economy. All that will help. Though India is also facing liquidity crisis, I think its temporary. Its caused by outflow of hot capital as FIIs needed to cover their positions in their county or origin. It can be addressed by relaxing CRR and reducing rate. What will also help is that given all this slowdown, oil may remain subdued for a few years to come. If India does not get drunk on low oil prices, it would not have to spend all foreign money to buy it. Over all, its good for India's standing in the world. This event will narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

GM and Ford in Dire straits

Read this article and then this one.

The US Flagship Auto Makers are on their death beds. A company like GM and Ford were the pride of US for decades till Japanese started making inroads in the 80's and irrespective of what Lee Iaccoca might have said in his book about Ford and then Chrysler its now evident that the slide that started then is now reaching its culmination. US Auto companies face annihilation. All 3 of them GM, Ford and Chrysler and even though there might be talks of merger between GM and Chrysler, I feel their time has run out.

Unless the US govt bails them out they are going to go under by this time next year.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Unconscious Discrimination

A Good article in NY Times on Unconscious Discrimination made me think about the discrimination against Muslims in India. During my short stay here in US I've come to believe that the Muslims in India have the same status as Blacks in the US.

However open minded we call ourselves, we are in some way uneasy in our dealings with our Muslim countrymen. When Shabana Azmi expressed her views on moderate muslims, a lot of people came up with examples with how our president was a Muslim and so on and so forth, but the truth is that since 1992, we are living in an increasingly polarized society.

1992 brought the Hindu-Muslim divide to even the most moderate citizens. That singular event has created a mistrust that has only grown with time. In many cities, Educated muslims have sold their properties in otherwise Hindu dominated areas and have moved to predominantly Muslim areas. Ghettos have come up in all major cities.

A relative of mine has done PHD on the biases against muslim traders and she gives examples of how the municipal corp of Mumbai neglects Muslim areas. The basic cleanliness and hygiene is missing.

Its true that given everything else is identical, if we were to choose between a Muslim and a non Muslim candidate we would lean towards non-muslim. Its a fact of life and we are all guilty of it.

That the builders discriminate against muslims is a known fact. There are Muslim only buildings and then there are non-muslim buildings. Any other religion is fine, christians, parsi, sikh all are welcome. North Indians and south indians and jains and bengalis are welcome. Muslims are not.

My theory is that the spate of violence recently is in news is an aftermath of 1992 and Godhara. Unless we make attempts to address the deep psychological divide between Muslims and the rest, there will be no peace in India.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Crisis in the US, Impact on the world financial systems

As US Congress debates over $700 billion bailout and citizens cry foul over what they see as govt sponsored robbery, the world is grappling with the ripple effects of the liquidity crisis.



Trading in Russia got suspended for 2 days until govt pumped in $120 billion into the system. RBI in India is pumping Rs 84,000 Crore(~ $20 billion) into financial system.



US is a special country. When they screw up its not just them who gets impacted. It impacts the entire world. Till about last month RBI was trying to suck liquidity out of the system to contain inflation, now its pumping in money to ease lack of liquidity issues. Nothing has changed with Indian financial system or economy except that investors from US have exited. RBI had to sell them dollars and so in turn it has collected thousands of crore of Rupees (which have been sucked out of the system). In fact inadvertantly RBI may have made some cool profit in the process. It must have accumulated these dollars earlier this year by paying @Rs40 and are now selling these dollars to perhaps the same investors @Rs45. In coming days they might even reduce the CRR to inject more liquidity in the system.



It just goes on to show how US impacts the world. I just hope US congress sorts it out quickly without getting sentimental about morals and conscience. Let history and coming generations debate this in their economics masters curriculum.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

House Hunting in DC

The matter apparently resolved itself on Sat. I've been given go ahead to join work. Indian s/w services companies perhaps have one of the worst employee policies in US. I wish there was some bench mark available that would bring out the contrast between a US based company's HR policies and compare them with India based companies operating in US.

Coming to the topic. Went house hunting today. DC area is about as expensive as Bay area when it comes to rentals. Choose a house. Looked like a steal. Closed the deal. Came back to check what its residents say about it on the net. Got the gory details of the catch(gotcha). Trying to wriggle out of the deal. Lets wait and see the damages.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Holed up in DC

Its been a week and we are holed up in DC without the knowledge of what future may bring. Paid a visit to White House with my family. Finally rented a car so that I could be mobile. Planning to visit a ranch today. I'm told there would be pony rides et all. My daughter has not ridden a horse before. I hope she likes it. Weather is a hide and seek. Its been wet and darb through the week. Friday was a better.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Perspective

We were sitting at Golden Bierch sipping beer when we were informed about the loss. One of our collegue's father had passed away in his sleep. Needless to say we rushed to his place. About half a dozen guys frantically placed calls to find the fastest route to B'lore. Alas, there is no way he can reach home before 9-May. We finally took him to airport and put him on Cathey Pac flight.

In all of this somewhere, I find myself shaken up. Sitting so far away from my parents there is absolutely nothing that I can do should they face any emergency. Makes me feel helpless and vulnarable and guilty of Green Greed.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

God vs Religion

I was travelling to work on a crowded Subway. It was an unusual day. Trains from my residence to my workplace were cancelled and I had to take a detour. On the way there are few churches and I was looking over the holy cross with a pigeon perched on it, when it occurred to me.

Everyone needs God. But only the unenlightened need religion.

To me, God represents our inner self. Our faith, our hope and aspirations, our guilt and pride, our fears and convictions.

Religion is oversimplification of God to make him more comprehendible to the masses. The Dos, don'ts and the rituals are an over simplified rule book with broad black and white strokes.

Couple of years back when I was visiting China I asked a friend how did they decide what was right, how did they console themselves when everything seems to be going wrong. Being a communist country there is no concept of God there. He said they look upon their elders for comfort and are largely governed by social norms and conscience.

It seems its possible to survive without religion, perhaps even preferable if you can handle ambiguity in life. But for me its impossible to imagine a world without God.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

In the Valley of Elah

I've seen a few movies around army life and I must admit I like the genre. Be it A few Good Men where I loved Jack, or Courage under fire, or Saving Private Ryan. In my book, this movie ranks up there with the best.
Another pleasant surprise was its creator, Paul Haggis. I had loved Crash, Million Dollar Baby(Script), Casino Royale(Script). In general I like this guy. This is his second movie and its brilliant.
Its about post traumatic stress thats impacting American troops in Iraq and how the war there is changing things in the mainland. Its one of the best antiwar movies, especially so as its so subtle(its disguised as a crime thriller). Tommy Lee Jones is outstanding. He carries the movie with a stoic restraint. Charlize Theron is equally good in her role.
Especially noteworthy scenes are.
- Tommy Bracing himself for the bad news(about his son) while tending to the cut he got while shaving.
- Tommy sharing the news with his wife.
- Tommy telling David and Goliath story to Charlize's son.

Another cool thing was the way he used his son's phone recordings as flashback, in insight into his son's life and persona.

How can you tell a gut wrenching story, without really having any villains. Then again its about parents having to face the loss of their children. (a theme that I've always found myself sensitive to, it brought back memories of In the Bedroom)

Somehow Paul Haggis movies do not go down well with the critics. For me, though, he is one of the best story tellers out there.

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Adam Gilchrist Vs Kumar Sangakkara

World has hailed Adam Gilchrist as the greatest Wicketkeeper batsman of the world after he decided to hang his gloves this season. I too am his fan, especially in ODIs. In fact he is still playing ODIs. He has only retired from Test Cricket.

His is an illustrious career. I think he has most dismissals against his name for a wicket keeper. And to top it he is a great batsman, coming in late in the innings he has been the rock of Gibraltar for Aussies. No team has ever breathed easy when he is on the crease.

Thats clearly awesome. But calling him the best ever is taking it too far when we have a worthy contender in our neighborhood. The great Lankan Kumar Sangakkara.

Lets compare them side by side in test cricket

Adam Gilchrist
Test matches played 96 (1999-2008)
Test Runs scored 5570
Ave -47.6
100- 17
Dismissals 416 (Ct-379 St 37)

Kumar Sangakkara
Test Matches played 71 (2000-)
Test Runs 6032
Ave - 56.37
100 - 16
Dismissals - 170(Ct- 149 st -20)

Kumar is clearly blocks ahead in Batting Dept. He has scored more runs in less tests and at a phenomenal rate of 56.37. For comparisons, thats better than Tendulkar's 55.5 or so.

Coming to Wicket Keeping. I believe that its a combination on how good you are, and also, how good are your bowlers. Australia being the leading world side has a clear advantage there. They have the best bowling attack in the world. McGrath and Warne were awesome bowlers. No wonder the batsmen kept nicking the ball or misreading the ball and stepping out of the crease and to that extent any Australian Wicket Keeper is likely to have good statistics there. Though Lanka also has Murali and Vaas, they do not seem to generate as many behind the wicket dismissals as Australians. Or maybe Kumar Sangakkara is a terrible wicketkeeper... How is one to judge?

Another thing is age, Kumar is 30 and is likely to be around for another 4-6 years. That would mean he has a fair chance of reaching 9000-10,000 runs in test cricket and may have chance to better Gilchrist's record in dismissals.

Lets wait a few more years and see where Kumar Sangakkara performs. Right now he seems to be doing better than Tendulkars and Pointings of the world. Don't forget he is a wicketkeeper too.

All said and done, Adam Gilchrist is a legend and will an inspiring player...

Amores perros

The first movie of the director Alejandro González Iñárritu I watched was 21 grams. I think it was a good story, but the best part of the movie was the narration. The non-linear narration made it an interesting watch. I later followed it with Babel. I loved its music but the story telling style was the same.

Today I watched Amores perros, the movie they say launched the director. Its 2000 movie, way before Babel was made. Its in Spanish. During all these movies, there are multiple threads, the stories have remained dark with an element of redemption, the movies show some gruesome shots, may be for the effects, and all these threads then converge through a singular incident, here shown as the opening shot.

The dog fights are gruesome, and convey the gritty nature of the movie. The homeless hitman is perhaps the master stroke. An ex militia who does not think twice before killing a human gets a dose of his own medicine when a fighter dog he saves from a road accident kills all his other pets as soon as he recovers from its injuries. And yet the hitman can't bring himself to kill it for he was the one who saved that dog in the first place.

To me that was the master stroke of the film. Later when he leaves two brothers in a duel like situation is genius.

A lengthy, gruesome, yet great movie. Enjoyed the last 20 minutes of the movie.

Thats where the twist is.

Saturday, February 02, 2008

Once

One of the best things about US is Netflix (Another is its libraries). Movies that I'd never have had a chance to watch in India are available here.

Watched an Irish movie called Once. Its about a street singer and part time mechanic coming to know a Czech street hawker (sells roses and magazines) and together they composing some touching music. Writer, Director John Carney creates magic on the streets of Dublin. 80 minutes of movie flows gently deriving its sentiments from mellow romantic songs. Guy, a street musician sings popular songs during the day. At night however, when no one is listening, he sings his heart out through self composed songs. One such night, Marketa Irglova , an immigrant street hawker, notices his songs and tips him 10 cents.

From there the story takes off as the couple works together to compose songs. She herself is a piano player and plays at a music shop as she can't afford a piano herself. Any regular Hollywood movie, the leads would fall in love. For "Once" this movie is refreshingly different. Here, finding strength from each other and their music the protagonists find their lost loves. The subtle romance and their passion for music anchors the movie. Together, and with help from other street musicians they piece together an album. The transformation of the indifferent recording technician to an admirer (almost a band member over just 2 days of recording) captures the fact that ordinary ppl can create extra-ordinary things.

Its a short, simple and yet a memorable movie. I'm editing my favorite movies list to add this one.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Tendulkar's word saved Harbhajan

Is this a PJ? Is this a Jaspal Bhatti sit com? This can't be true. This is as cheeky as it can get at international level. You call a guy Monkey and invite 3 test match ban for racial abuse, but if you actually abuse him using loathsome slang "Maan Kee" you get away with it, losing only 50% of the match fee. Check it out... This is the cricket at it kinkiest best...

Accenture's next champion of waffle words

Accenture's next champion of waffle words

Had fits of laughter reading this. I'll not comment on why should they single out Accenture for this treatment. She is right in deriding ppl who belt out jargons at the drop of a hat. Its true, Mr Foster could have summarized that memo in a sentence but for the embellishments that are implicit in any MBA curriculum.

A must read for all high flying execs who have traded the art of simple and direct communication for worthless euphemisms